Talk-Polywell.org

SJ,
Any chance that a Helion 'device' will fit in a starship (they may need to extend the Starship cargo bay length, diameter is not an issue, weight and length are the questions)?

Does anyone know what Helion's projected timeline currently is? If I recall correctly, they had intended to have Polaris running in 2023. Has this been pushed back to 2024 now?

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:23 pm

SJ,
Any chance that a Helion 'device' will fit in a starship (they may need to extend the Starship cargo bay length, diameter is not an issue, weight and length are the questions)?

It should fit, except for the power supplies. A significant part of the Polaris facility will be needed to house those. Unlike the renderings, they will only fit one in there, likely. They are still working on improving that side, though. So who knows. Come 2027, they might have it small and light enough to fit into a single Starship. I think it would be better than the equivalent in solar panels and batteries.

Carl White wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 06, 2021 7:33 pm

Does anyone know what Helion's projected timeline currently is? If I recall correctly, they had intended to have Polaris running in 2023. Has this been pushed back to 2024 now?

I think it was pushed back because the new machine will demonstrate net electricity production from D-D on top of the production of He3.
I presume that means a slightly bigger machine. Also note that having a machine ready by 2023 does not necessarily mean that you will have the best results from it right away. Takes some time to "warm it up".

Skipjack wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 06, 2021 10:56 pm

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:23 pm

SJ,
Any chance that a Helion 'device' will fit in a starship (they may need to extend the Starship cargo bay length, diameter is not an issue, weight and length are the questions)?

It should fit, except for the power supplies. A significant part of the Polaris facility will be needed to house those. Unlike the renderings, they will only fit one in there, likely. They are still working on improving that side, though. So who knows. Come 2027, they might have it small and light enough to fit into a single Starship. I think it would be better than the equivalent in solar panels and batteries.

From what I read, Helion should have direct contact with Musk through a prominent investor. Solar would be perfect to supply startup power for Helion's Mars infrastructure machine, which could afford to be assembled. Still if a working machine could be fitted in a Starship Mars transport then a design for fusion powered rocket could be imagined.

I cannot see other projects having the possibility to do this as the direct conversion with 95% efficiency is brilliant design key.

Anyway this works out this is history making.

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:26 pm

From what I read, Helion should have direct contact with Musk through a prominent investor. Solar would be perfect to supply startup power for Helion's Mars infrastructure machine, which could afford to be assembled. Still if a working machine could be fitted in a Starship Mars transport then a design for fusion powered rocket could be imagined.

Unfortunately Musk still does not believe that fusion will be viable any time soon. I hope that will change come 2023 (ZAP Q>1) and/or 2024 Helion (net electricity). We will see.
Both companies should be on his radar for different reasons and applications.

I believe the polywell concept was presented to Musk, Gates, and the like some years ago, and they all turned their noses up at it. They all thought that piddle power (wind, solar, etc.) was the solution to energy and would not entertain anything else.

Gates did invest in Terrapower and now he has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems.

I hope that will change come 2023 (ZAP Q>1) and/or 2024 Helion (net electricity).

By now Helion has proven what is needed for Musk to see. The problem for Musk is he is invested in Solar and Batteries for strategic purposes so until others can see the actual hardware putting out electrons he will act ignorant. (IMO)

Gates is invested in a Tokamak thinking the superconductor is the hurdle, which is the easy part to solve, but it still has a nightmare unsolved first wall problem.

If Zap continues to scale without an unsolvable instability jumping out of the closet it will be a Utility fossil drop in favorite (instability during scaling is still a possibility, but there are tricks left to deal with it), General Fusion will have a tough time against Zap & Helion, Tokamaks will be abandoned fast against Zap & Helion. TAE, dunno?

Hard to beat one cent / KWh, 95% plasma to electric.

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:03 pm

By now Helion has proven what is needed for Musk to see. The problem for Musk is he is invested in Solar and Batteries for strategic purposes so until others can see the actual hardware putting out electrons he will act ignorant. (IMO)

I think that the market is big enough for several players, provided all of them are successful. I think Helion could change Musk's mind about fusion come 2024 (or shortly before that if they can show him something close to net electricity by then). The question is whether that will change his attitude. As you say, he is very much invested in solar because of the Solar City deal and therefore he needs to protect that.
ZAP might also change his mind by 2023. ZAP could be very interesting for him because of their path towards a high T/W ratio fusion space drive.

I think Elon has a bit of hubris, which considering his success is hard to blame him for having. I think he has thought long and hard about pathways to getting humanity off the "tit" of fossil fuel and believes in solar and batteries (and wind). Therefore, since he has thought long and hard and decided fusion is not the answer (in the near term) he is closed minded to the possibilities.

I agree that it will take basically proving it is here before he will jump onboard. But when he does, I think the full weight of his intellect, work ethic and desire to accelerate the move away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable energy will kick in. With that comes the now over 300 billion USD at his disposal and two, three, four, five companies depending on your preference, most of which are the top draws for the best and brightest. Point being, he is, whether you like or not, someone to keep trying to convince. The entire auto industry is only now beginning to realize just how far behind they are and the space launch industry knows and cannot do anything about it because it is too late. He and his companies operate at the speed of transformation humanity needs. Fusion will only accelerate it.

Got some interesting tidbit in this context. So a 50 MW Helion fusion generator will roughly (very roughly) be in the correct order of magnitude to fit into a single Starship in terms of both mass and size. I certainly hope that this will get Elon's attention when the time comes.

For reference:
https://www.spacex.com/media/starship_u ... ide_v1.pdf

Skipjack wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:59 am

Got some interesting tidbit in this context. So a 50 MW Helion fusion generator will roughly (very roughly) be in the correct order of magnitude to fit into a single Starship in terms of both mass and size. I certainly hope that this will get Elon's attention when the time comes.

SJ, thank you for looking into that.

Also, I take your point on ZapEnergy with respect to powering an interplanetary ship, but the direct conversion to electric power of 95% by Helion's Fusion Plant makes it perfect for an interplanetary ship coupled with ion thrusters. Moreover, I would hope that Helion would take advantage of their direct contacts with Musk through some of their prominent investors to keep him briefed as to their progress and Fusion Plant capabilities.

Waiting until 'high noon' (Fusion Plant built, electric power generated, papers published) to start planting is for city slickers, not real farmers that know about how short a working day is. Competition is brutal and unforgiving.

If my understanding of Helion's Fusion Plant is not too off, it would seem that Plant length has more to do with the fuel type than power, and diameter of the machine is tied to power. Then there is the diffuser material, not sure if that is an engineering issue for scaling power. It might be better to just stack the machines rather than scale size to increase power?

mvanwink5 wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:44 am

If my understanding of Helion's Fusion Plant is not too off, it would seem that Plant length has more to do with the fuel type than power, and diameter of the machine is tied to power. Then there is the diffuser material, not sure if that is an engineering issue for scaling power. It might be better to just stack the machines rather than scale size to increase power?

Confinement times scales with Radius(separatrix)^2.6.
Fusion power scales with confinement * volume. Volume is of course length * π * rs [sup]2[/sup].
Neutron wall loads are a limiting factor. IIRC, they can make the D-He3 machine more powerful than the D-T machine for that reason (among others).