Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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happyjack27
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby happyjack27 » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:17 pm

right... i don't think that climatologists failed to take into account the physics of water in their climate models! :lol:

Maui
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby Maui » Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:01 am


RERT
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby RERT » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:00 am

I'm an optimist, and I agree with you that many of these problems will be solved.

The policy questions circulate around what governments should do. I'm very relaxed about the government spending $100bn on relevant research which should accelerate carbon reduction. I'm really not relaxed about making poor people all over the world pay more for their power, by ruling out the cheapest options. And grid reliability is a red-line: we don't experiment with ever increasing intermittent power, and find out by bitter experience how much is too much. South Australia seems to have had a dose of that. In the UK, government has run down spare capacity below reasonable levels by forcing coal plants to close. In my view that's just maladministration.

So, by all means execute a plan for renewable energy which engineers know works: but not one where there are gaps in technology or capital plans, or where the power stations work but the grid doesn't. Just go step by step and spend the money needed to be sure at each step. And please don't make the poor pay...

RERT
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby RERT » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:22 am

On EV: 30 mpg I make about 5.3 cents per mile for fuel at $60/bbl.

I think grid power is something like 2 cents a mile for EV.

The numbers may well be off, but clearly there is point where there is insufficient cost advantage for EV to defray the capital cost of the battery.

Yes, the dynamics of oil prices/ EV are interesting. When prices get too high, EV creates demand destruction for oil. If prices then crash demand for EV evaporates. Probably one foresees constant cost improvements in EV putting an ever lower ceiling on oil prices. I guess eventually that price drops below the reserve replacement cost - new wells cease to be viable to fund oil for automotive use. Around here my crystal ball explodes. I think probably some other end use, maybe aviation, starts to be a big driver of oil prices. Anyway, interesting times....

krenshala
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby krenshala » Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:05 pm


paperburn1
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby paperburn1 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:09 pm

I am looking for the article but there was a study done on EV and what the oil cost would have to be and if I remember correctly it was close to 100 dollars a barrel . We have been in that price range before twice and if psychohistory is any indication we will be in that price range again soon. This article was written in the 80s so there is no compensation for inflation and the cost of technology dropping to be included in those figures. I will try and find it as at the very least it is an interesting read.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

pbelter
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby pbelter » Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:43 pm

The problem with the AGW proponents is have a complete disregard for scientific method.
There are multiple factors influencing the global temperatures:

1. Periodic variations in the output of the fusion reactor called Sun.

The scientific method to see if that has any influence on the global temperature is to establish control group as in any reputable experiment. If the sun variations have impact than the same impact would be observable on Mars. There are in fact studies that showed that the ice caps on Mars were shrinking in line with the observed warming on Earth until about 1998 when warming trend on Earth peaked.

If AGW is real then Mars warming should have nothing to do with Earth warming. If the Sun is the culprit then they should be in sync.
Have you heard any of the AGW crowd looking for a control group and funding for more Mars climate research?
There is no need to since their church already revealed the truth to them. There is no more need to do research since they claimed "Consensus"

2. Variations in dust contend of the atmosphere and its impact on global albedo. Primarily due to industrialization of agriculture. Also known as Global Dimming.

Have you heard AGW proponents trying to get more funds to analyze the trend?

3. Variation of solar radiation reaching Earth due to changes in dust content reaching Earth as the Sun travels around the Galaxy.

I haven't heard about any studies in that regard and this is pretty obvious thing to check.

4. Variations in cloud formation and albedo changes due to changes in cosmic rays.

The amount of cosmic rays reaching Earth is influenced by changes in the Sun's magnetic field

5. Greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere, primarily water.

There is probably some impact here but it has a strong negative loop feedback.
- The hotter it is the more clouds, the more clouds the higher albedo effect.
- The more CO2 the higher the biomass that uses up the CO2. By some estimates the biomass grew by 13%. CO2 along with water is the most scarce nutrient for plants and a growth limiting factor. Commercial greenhouses heated by natural gas often pump the resulting CO2 back to the greenhouse to shorten the growing period (5-10%) and significantly increase crop yields.

It would be a very interesting study to see how increase of foliage affects the albedo.

Combining all the above creates an incredibly complex system but the AGW crowd doesn't care.

Their church told them AGW is real, all their priests told them and scientific method be damned.

It is time to stop the assault on science and the billions wasted to support this fallacy. If only a fraction of this wasteful spending was directed to real science like the fusion research, we would be living in a different world.

Hopefully this will change soon.

Maui
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby Maui » Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:22 pm

Okay, thanks for that pbelter.

happyjack27
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:25 pm


pbelter
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby pbelter » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:05 pm

Scientists do just not the ones you read about, because it is always those who spell doom that attract attention.

Have you heard the CO2 calculating the observed drop in solar activity into predicted temperature changes?
Any of them advocating using Mars as a control group?

Their mantra is man-made CO2 and that is the only thing they care about.

This comes from their how they think and how they have to protect their careers:

- I am a weather scientist not an astronomer, so what do I care about the Sun?
- They are giving grants for AGW research, I am taking them. If I don't someone else will (and people do research that supports their view so few dissenters will apply or if they do they cannot be as convincing when competing for the funds)

- You can't go against a dogma in academic setting and get a comfy tenure...

- Humans harm the planed and we cannot do good by accident, this comes form the prevailing anti-humanist philosophy at academia. Increase in crop yields because of CO2, greening of deserts, nah, that goes against the narrative. But polar bears melting, that's so heartbreaking. This in turns comes from the natural biologically wired human tendency to watch out for dangers. Nobody would listen to them if they said all is good, but a lot of people listen if there is a danger. That brings attention and financing.

It is all about human nature and protecting self interest.

On top of that there is the nature of the institutions. They always welcome findings that promote their agenda and let them grow.
Especially the biggest and baddest corporation out there - our unaccountable government and its officials.
If all the research gives them more power to tax people (carbon tax) and introduce more regulations, create more regulatory institutions and increase employment in existing ones - then go for it by all means. And of course sponsor research saying more of the same is needed. The more is done in this regard the more we find we have to do, as "time is running out". This is very reasonable approach from their perspective. If a marketing strategy works, escalate it so it works even better. Until nobody buys it any more.

It is all good for growth of their institution, gives them more power and money and after all it is not their money that they are spending.

Were I a government decision maker assigning grants with no background in science I'd probably fund it more, after all I have seen on TV how scary the global warming can be. And after all that is the only thing they show on TV because it is scary. And then it must be true because I have seen it so many times on TV.
Have you heard about the Oakland warehouse that burned down with bunch of people in it?
Have you heard about the warehouse in my city that didn't burn? Of course not, because it is not much of news story.
Last edited by pbelter on Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

happyjack27
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:17 pm


pbelter
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby pbelter » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:54 pm

I value critical thinking and pursuit of truth using the Scientific Method, with its 3 main tools:
- control group
- Ockham razor
- falsifiable theories

The AGW crowd is not very fond of those methods.
Scientist are individuals, not a monolithic group. If it were then no critical thinking would happen.

There a petition signed by 31,000 scientists with US addresses saying “no convincing evidence” for human induced climate change. you can easily google it.
Assuming that all 10% of those who believe AGW is unfounded managed to get and sign the petition and 99% of scientists believe that it is real, than we have 31 million scientists in the US. That means that roughly every 10th person is a scientist. This is just laughable.

Saying that you think that I think that I am very smart and scientists are not is just pure demagoguery on your side. What I tried to demonstrate is that the AGW people are very reasonable crowd given their objective to protect their self interest and financial well being and that creates positive feedback loop with the people funding them.

This is a forum for people who love science so if you want to have a reasonable discussion show me the problems with my reasoning rather than expressing options of what you think that I think.

I hope you can be more of a thinker than follower.

happyjack27
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:02 pm

Last edited by happyjack27 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.

happyjack27
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:12 pm


happyjack27
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Re: Bill Gates is heading a $1 billion venture fund to combat climate change

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:53 pm



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