LENR Is Real

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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Giorgio
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby Giorgio » Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:56 am

A society of dogmas is a dead society.

tomclarke
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby tomclarke » Sun Nov 15, 2015 11:18 am

Logically, the fact that Rosi's high-profile LENR devices don't work does not prove LENR is not real. And few here after Ladajo's magnificent trawl through Rossi's self-contradicting statements can have thought they do work.

Still, I continue to be fascinated by the very well documented Swede Professor's Lugano Report on extended tests of Rossi's "hot-cat". These tests are unusual in being (almost) independent and very well described. They are still used by Rossi as validation that his stuff works and he has recently obtained > $10M funding from Neil Woodford of all people . A shocking matter given Neil's normal rather conservative approach to his multi-billion investment funds. It just goes to show how badly financial types fall down well evalauting junk science.

The Lugano tests show (headline):
COP of >3 in extended test well above possible chemical enthalpy.
COP "acceleration" from 3.2 to 3.6 for tests of the same setup at claimed temperatures of 1250C and 1400C.

A while ago (posted here) I showed that due to a (quite subtle) calculation error the actual COP was 1.07 (but with uncertainty +/- 30%, so this figure is pretty arbitrary) and that, independent of this uncertainty, the COP for the two different tests was identical. The "acceleration" was an artifact of the calculation error.

http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/ClarkeTcommentont.pdf

What I find wonderful is how the little things that still were unexplained about the data slot into place when carefully examined. Two internet criticisms of the work were:

(1) This error mechanism does not explain the "dummy" test, which shows lower output relative to the active tests than is easily explained
(2) This error mechanism does not explain the acceleration.

I have neat answers for both now. (2) is because my write-up was maths that most people don't read + detailed numerical calculations in python that most people were too lazy to run and validate for themselves. I have now an "easy-read" explanation.

(1) is blown out of the water by a small comment on page 4 of the Lugano report where the authors say that they adjusted their emissivity "book" data against real temperature data at low temperatures only. That will remove the error for the low temperature dummy tests. The high temperature "active" data then relies on the book data which, it turns out, is wrong because the use total emissivity and not band emissivity. But close reading shows that they knew it was wrong: when they cross-checked at low temperatures they found this out. Yet they still used this bad data at high temperatures where, it turns out, the error is much larger. The bad omission is any sort of temperature cross-check at higher temperatures.


For (2) see here:

http://www.lenr-forum.com/forum/index.p ... 8#post9348

And other posts on that thread.

parallel
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby parallel » Sun Nov 15, 2015 2:19 pm

Tom, I agree that the Lugano test left much to be desired regarding temperature measurement. As I wrote earlier I don't think even a better replication will convince skeptics like you. You will have to wait for the results of the 350 day trial of the 1 MW plant in Feb/Mar before you will admit Rossi has something. As the plant has now been operating (well according to Aftenposten and others) for eight months, there is not long to wait. With an independent customer and a referee the results should be more certain. It wasn't long ago that you refused to admit LENR was possible at all.

The only real news is that the new E-Cat X apparently has an operating temperature of 1400C. If this is proven to be reliable it will open the door to a number of other applications.

Adrian Ashfield

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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby tomclarke » Sun Nov 15, 2015 4:06 pm

My position on LENR has always been that like everyone I'd like it to be true. But:

(1) There is currently no LENR theory that explains the claimed experimental data
(2) The claimed experimental data is incoherent and well fits varied experimental error, bad methodology, and very occasional fraud.
(3) Any LENR theory would be extraordinary - in the sense that it has no fingerprints elsewhere in observational science and has big problems to overcome (high energy product normalisation being the worst one).

These things together make LENR highly unlikely. It is a real shame that the behaviour of most though not all groups involved in LENR, and particularly of Rossi, only confirms such a "highly unlikely" judgement.

Rossi continues to claim that the Lugano test has proved his device works, and many people have been convinced by this.

Of Rossi's most recent test "long-term" consider:
(1) Why, after 9 months, does he still claim to not know whether the testes device works?
(2) The parameters here are vague. What are the chances, whetehr it is declared successful or no, that data from this test will be any more spoof-free than the 17 (?) previous demos and tests?
(3) You must admit at least that this very long test is a brilliant move for someone wanting to perpetuate funding for devices none of which work.
(4) What is the likelihood Rossi will state after this test that current e-cats are deficient and he must have an extended development period in the new ecat-x?
(5) How did the 100 e-cats each of 10kW transform, in the middle of the test, into 4 e-cats each of 250kW? Does that make sense?
(6) Why does he stay camped out in his shipping container answering questions on his internet blog?

Rossi has remained miraculously good at finding new supporters, some with deep pockets, even as old ones become disillusioned. He is easily the match for Mills when it comes to free energy scams though I guess Mills has better staying power. This in spite of his continual self-contradiction.

parallel
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby parallel » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:09 pm

Tom,
There are dozens of theories. One of the better ones here.
http://www.e-catworld.com/2015/10/06/lo ... eischmann/

Rossi says he cannot state the trial is successful until it is over. Probably as a result of Industrial Heat’s insistence. Also safer.
Rossi is under no financial pressure now. Woodford Equity have added another $49 million after extensive due diligence. This legal statement means they must have had someone technical crawl all over the operating plant.

Rossi NEVER said the plant was 100 small E-Cats. He said the ~50 small E-Cats were on standby and have never been used. It was later that he added that the operating plant used four 250 kW E-Cat units and I have reason to believe each of those has three E-Cats inside, probably like what is shown in the patent. I’m guessing they operate with synergy to provide the very high COP reported by others.

Nothing will convince you short of commercial sales. Saying you "hope" LENR is successful is a slick way of answering the point that you earlier SAID you thought was impossible.

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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby tomclarke » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:32 pm

Last edited by tomclarke on Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby tomclarke » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:56 pm


parallel
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby parallel » Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:47 pm


Giorgio
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby Giorgio » Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:23 am

A society of dogmas is a dead society.

KitemanSA
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby KitemanSA » Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:45 am


tomclarke
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby tomclarke » Mon Nov 16, 2015 12:24 pm


parallel
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby parallel » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:47 pm

Tom,
As nothing short of commercial sales will persuade you it is a waste of time to give other examples.
Wait until Feb/Mar 2016 and then we will see who is right.

Giorgio
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby Giorgio » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:54 pm

A society of dogmas is a dead society.

tomclarke
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby tomclarke » Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:16 pm


parallel
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Re: LENR Is Real

Postby parallel » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:57 pm

Tom,
Well we shall see won't we.
I predict the COP>6 and the proof will be from the customer, who has to pay the energy bills.
Also from the appointed independent referee who is monitoring the operation..

I predict you will not believe it and try to change the subject to production dates, or something else in the future.
Last edited by parallel on Mon Nov 16, 2015 5:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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