20 years away, and always will be

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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CharlesKramer
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby CharlesKramer » Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:49 pm

Interesting chart, Preston.

Assuming it is based on valid assumptions and progress continues as it projects, when it break-even fusion? When is heat, containment density and containment time sufficient for p-B11?

If the chart is an accepted metric for evaluating fusion progress, why are NiF, Polywell, Tri-Alpha, and the Dense Plasma crowd so shamefully over-promising?

Part of the problem with fusion-hopefuls over-promising (and with the rampant denial-ism about failure witnessed here) is the way it crushes fusion credibility.

CBK
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TDPerk
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby TDPerk » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:16 am

"That's not what heard."

Well who'd you hear it from? So far, everything up through WB7.1 is positive. As has been pointed out, we have no idea--explicitly--how WB8.0 went.

"No -- so far -- it has failed."

No, it did exactly what it was built to do, which was verify the usefulness of the simulation codes for nuclear explosions.

"The astute observer might start to detect a pattern here."

The point is they keep on getting closer, albeit with Tokomaks only at ruinously uneconomic scales.

The smaller scale is the point of the IEC work.
molon labe
montani semper liberi
para fides paternae patria

prestonbarrows
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby prestonbarrows » Wed Jan 08, 2014 2:02 am


ladajo
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby ladajo » Wed Jan 08, 2014 1:26 pm

Charles,
If you wish to think that NIF was built for breakeven fusion, then you can think that. Those of use that know what it was actually built for will continue to see it produce useful work, as it has been doing already.

Your arguement is like saying morris-minis were built to be clown cars. But they suck at it. Whereas the designers built them to be economical metro cars with the ability to make periodic longer country/exo-urban forays. Which they excelled at, small, cheap, easy to get around in tight streets and parking, but still with a reasonable amount of internal volume. Clown car, can be, but not good at it. Urban workhorse, perfect.

Think what you wish.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

CharlesKramer
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby CharlesKramer » Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:03 pm

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Robthebob
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby Robthebob » Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:47 pm

I forgot to add, the history of the fusion effort had a lot of drama; without diving too deep into it, the reason why there are only two primary reactor designs, toroidal magnetic confinement and beam compression, is not because science and engineering demands it to be like that, it's largely due to politics.

Dont be angry at NiF because it failed to ignite like the name suggested (they might as well change the name to National unignition facility), be angry because the machine was really built for other reasons and got a big chunk of its funding because it claimed to be built for fusion.

Plasma physics is just a very insane field of study, we're progressing.

I can't give you physics and engineering explanations because I can't do justice (in fact no one can) in the discussion of the problems; I'm not sure if you understand, but unless we have a great model with enough computational power, we will have to build it to know if it works. We dont have even near a great model or enough computational power, and machine cost generally scale like or faster than machine size. For high Q machines (which I believe both toroidal magnetic confinement and beam compression machines are), to break even, you must have a huge enough reactor. Prediction of how big the machine needs to be are also something that is not absolutely certain. It's my understanding that beam compression scales better, but no one can really be sure due to the state of the theory (which is not because us scientists suck at life, it's because the problem is really really awful). I can give you hopefully relevant points if you wish.
Throwing my life away for this whole Fusion mess.

D Tibbets
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby D Tibbets » Wed Jan 08, 2014 9:13 pm

To error is human... and I'm very human.

prestonbarrows
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby prestonbarrows » Thu Jan 09, 2014 1:16 am


ladajo
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby ladajo » Thu Jan 09, 2014 3:47 pm

Good point Preston.

I would also add that in EMC2's case, they have been under a peer review process. They are also a little different in that yes they are private, but the bulk of the work has been as a government contractor supporting a research initiative.

The trouble with them is the lack of public transparency. It allows for wild and wide interpretation of where they are at by pundits.
If you are not inside the EMC2/Navy circle, you really just do not know what their status is. It is purely an interpretation based on the telephone game.

In any event, I would offer to Charles that his negativity should not be based on scientists and science, but on those that interpret what they are doing and where they are at. The Headline generators in essence. Look at all the mis-informed circular hype in Rossiworld. As far as I have seen it all purely boils down to "Rossisaid" and nothing of real substance. Even the recent vaunted "Third Party" report boiled down to Rossisaid. It was just more clevelry hidden in the suppossed independent (not so much) report.

Anyway, Charles, again, I say fusion is well understood, however, the means and methods to create the required conditions in an economical, controllable and productive fashion are what is the challenge. It is essentially a project that is seeking to shrink a sun down to fit in a box, and have knobs to make it change colors.

We know how to make stuff fuse, it is the application of the knowledge that has been the challenge. And in anything, knowing it can be done is half the battle. We know it can be done, now we are in the other half of the battle. It will be done. That part is not in question.
The gant chart youy are seeking does not exist simply because there are things in this part of the battle that we still do not know that we do not know. That is and has been the limiting factor, as it usually is with scientific research.

Patience.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

CharlesKramer
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby CharlesKramer » Fri Jan 10, 2014 1:27 am

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JoeP
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby JoeP » Fri Jan 10, 2014 4:30 pm

The engineering is the hard part; the theory is there for the most part.

I think there is simply insufficient pressure to get it done as fast as we would like, especially since cheap (enough) fuels are still in abundance. There are centuries worth of coal, gas, and oil in the ground still.

Not to mention fission. IIRC, there are enough fissionable elements in the ground to last for many centuries. Yes, we have the nuclear waste and safety issues, but that is also an engineering and political problem that is resolvable. So when fossil fuels run low, or if the pollution gets too extreme, we will go there if in a big way we have to.

happyjack27
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Jan 10, 2014 5:14 pm


paperburn1
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby paperburn1 » Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:12 pm

OR Just maybe the Galactic Overloads do not want us to reach into space... :mrgreen:
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

happyjack27
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:22 pm


happyjack27
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Re: 20 years away, and always will be

Postby happyjack27 » Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:29 pm



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