SpaceX News

[mvanwink5]

and WW3 gears up.

Yes, it seems someone left the doors unlocked to Arkham Asylum.

[DeltaV]

Continuing with analysis of public-domain video evidence from this most regrettable incident, the plume of destruction appears between frames 3 and 4 of the 7-frame sequence above.

Frame 5 seems to give an indication of the offending beam's direction and, as would be expected for a near-normal (near-perpendicular for non-geeks) angle of incidence, the axis is near the plume's symmetry axis seen in frames 6 and 7.

[Giorgio]

.........

[DeltaV]

.........

Decoder ring?

OK, I'll interpret that as "processing in progress". A contemplative drumming of cyber fingers upon a virtual desktop.

[D Tibbets]

The spot near the top of the first stage/ interstage/ bottom of the second stage is interesting. But it may simply be a venting of gas. If there was overpressure in a tank/ line, a valve may have been venting. As such the failure may not have been an over pressure directly, but if the valve failed, the buildup of pressure could not have been relieved- boom. With this reasoning a frame or two not showing the plume might reinforce this speculation. Without it the argument is more speculative. Alternately, a line may have already been ruptured, venting was progressing, some was leaking- creating the spot, but not enough, and the pressure built up till structural failure occurred.
Telemetry, if available would tell the story.

No laser is required with this picture, though it is certainly more intriguing...

Dan Tibbets

[Giorgio]

.........

Decoder ring?

OK, I'll interpret that as "processing in progress". A contemplative drumming of cyber fingers upon a virtual desktop.

It was more a contemplative thinking. Trying to figure out if all this was a joke or an actual attempt to hijack a good scientific thread into another pseudo science / conspiracy thread.

[ladajo]

The later I think. Albeit with a heavy amount of baiting.

Personally, I think it was a high altitude bird strike...

[JoeP]

Personally, I think it was a high altitude bird strike...

You sure it wasn't LENR effects?

[Giorgio]

Personally, I think it was a high altitude bird strike...

You sure it wasn't LENR effects?

I didn't want to write it publicly because I know CIA is investigating me, but I found the truth to everything.

The cause of SpaceX failure was due to a Chinese bird who was genetically modified to increase the occurrences of LENR in his intestines, hence creating a copious amount of superheated hydrogen flow from the rectum of the poor bird.
This allowed him to rapidly climb to 80 Km altitude and intercept and destroy SpaceX rocket.
A picture of the bird right before hitting the rocket can be seen in the frame 666 but only using glasses with red filters and vertical polarization, and by placing your head tilted at 37,5 degree from monitor vertical axis while using a stroboscopic light.

Why I am so sure?
Because after yesterday dinner with a supplier I have experienced the very same phenomena in my intestine! A suddenly and inexplicable increase in temperature followed by copious Hydrogen production and expulsion. A sure indication of LENR activity!

To all the deniers wishing to bash me I can only say to go and try to eat fish of dubious nature in a Chinese street restaurant and test the effect by yourself. Nuff said!

[DeltaV]

Trying to figure out if all this was a joke or an actual attempt to hijack a good scientific thread into another pseudo science / conspiracy thread.

I have never joked on this forum. Humor is illogical.

Unlike MH370, this is not a hijack attempt.

BTW, this is an engineering thread, not a scientific thread.

This is a straightforward analysis based on the available video evidence. I acknowledge the need for higher resolution, but this is what is available.
(WARNING: Video Evidence Interpretation Occurs Below!)

If my theory is disproven by other evidence, great!.

There are so many people (including rocket experts) following more conventional lines of investigation for this incident that I believe those bases are all covered. My task here is not to foment paranoia, but to consider a fringe possibility that somebody should look at, if only because of its ramifications, if true. If I don't do this, who will? NASA?


I'll start from the beginning:

1) Watch the stabilized video several more times and note that the flickering bright spot is inconsistent with the expected extent and brightness of reflected sunlight from a generally uniform cylinder (no conical-base payload shroud), which would be more linear and closer in brightness to other portions of the cylinder (outside the dark area).

2) Note that the elliptical dark area is also darker than other portions of the cylinder in shadow, even though the geometry and lighting angle should be the same, suggesting perhaps a charred area. This is more apparent from the full screen video at slow speed than from a single frame, given the stage 1 exhaust plume variations. I freely admit that this is hard to see given the poor video resolution.

3) Dan brings up a valid point, that the bright spot could be gas venting from a tank breach (one way to do that from the outside is with a bullet). I won't get into the myriad scenarios for breaching a tank from the inside, as those are being thoroughly debated on nasaspaceflight.com. I accept gas venting as an alternate possibility. This does not rule out the laser theory, however, nor does it provide any reason for the dark area.

4) At this point in the flight the dynamic pressure has dropped significantly, so it is not unreasonable to expect the plume from a pressurized tank breach to exit more or less normal to the exterior surface.

5) Frames 4-7 above appear consistent with an expanding plume that originates from the bright spot (laser or venting).

6) Frames 5-7 show bright spots on the expanding plume which could be interpreted as an intersecting beam.

7) There just happened to be a Chinese-flagged container ship with clear line-of-sight to CRS-7 near the launch area. Without having more accurate position data available, its location at launch seems consistent with the alleged beam direction seen in the video.

(If you prefer not to implicate the Chinese Communist Party, feel free to substitute your own villian(s) here; Grey Aliens, United Launch Alliance, Merovingian Dynasty, whatever.)

[Giorgio]

Trying to figure out if all this was a joke or an actual attempt to hijack a good scientific thread into another pseudo science / conspiracy thread.

I have never joked on this forum. Humor is illogical.

Great, than by logic I humbly ask you to analyze these issues:

1) Scattering attenuation of the laser in the atmosphere at 80 Km.

2) Laser beam divergence at 80 Km.

3) Where the ship had installed the Radar Tracking System to track a rocket flying at more than 1km sec and at 80 Km altitude.

Once you reply in logic and engineering way to these points you will get my full attention.


And 2 final notes for you:

1) The ship is not Chinese, the ship owner is MAERSK, and the ship is "Managed" by Univan Maritime", an HK company with Uk, Dutch, Japanese and Indian management that handles crew and maintenance for several hundred ships around the world.
Chinese government involvement in this company management is nil.

2) If you think that you can actually operate some machinery from the top of a container ship than it means you have never been aboard one (I have) or you never saw one from real life.

BTW, this is an engineering thread, not a scientific thread.

Engineering IS science.

[DeltaV]

1) Scattering attenuation of the laser in the atmosphere at 80 Km.

2) Laser beam divergence at 80 Km.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_optics

http://www.ibtimes.com.au/china-conduct ... ry-1386452

China has conducted two anti-satellite tests very recently, using its advanced laser technology. This was done during a recent exercise of the Peoples Liberation Army. The anti-satellite exercises were conducted using laser weapons. This was disclosed by Konstantin Sivkov, deputy head of the Moscow-based Think Tank, Academy of Geopolitical Problems, in an interview to Voice of Russia.

What is higher, LEO or 80 km?

And then there is the classified stuff...

3) Where the ship had installed the Radar Tracking System to track a rocket flying at more than 1km sec and at 80 Km altitude.

Known launch time/location and booster performance. Good weather. Optical tracking. No radar.

1) The ship is not Chinese, the ship owner is MAERSK, and the ship is "Managed" by Univan Maritime", an HK company with Uk, Dutch, Japanese and Indian management that handles crew and maintenance for several hundred ships around the world.
Chinese government involvement in this company management is nil.

The ship is "operated" by Univan. Do you know if the captain/crew are Chinese or not? Being home-ported in HK, it seems likely.
No Communist Party involvement (overt or covert) in a company based in China? Seriously?

2) If you think that you can actually operate some machinery from the top of a container ship than it means you have never been aboard one (I have) or you never saw one from real life.

Who said top? A containerized laser, sensing and firing through, say, a sliding door on the side of a ConEx box, could operate remotely or even autonomously, without the crew even knowing about it, if it was properly engineered. Or, just lock the human operator(s) into the box before loading. The power supply could be optimized for near-silent, one-time only use (it would only get one chance anyway).

Engineering IS science.

Engineering is one application-oriented subset of science. Another is medicine.
"Science" to me means the seeking of knowledge for its own sake, regardless of application, but that's because I think like an engineer. Semantics. <Yawn.>

Here is an enhanced frame, earlier in time than the above frames 1-7. Look into its eye...

[paperburn1]

Lets review some facts
Height at failure 150000 feet
Still flying in the MAX-G time of flight.
Upper tank was showing over-pressure telemetry
It is understood the CRS-7 Dragon suffered from a problem during the mating process with her Falcon 9 rocket inside the hanger at SLC-40. This delayed the launch date.
Looks like if you hole the tank, pressure lost not over pressure.
I think someone just mucked it up.

[DeltaV]

Upper tank was showing over-pressure telemetry

So would I if a laser was heating me up.

It is understood the CRS-7 Dragon suffered from a problem during the mating process with her Falcon 9 rocket inside the hanger at SLC-40. This delayed the launch date.

I can't see NASA or SpaceX not checking for damage before launch.

Looks like if you hole the tank, pressure lost not over pressure.

What is your point? The over-pressure telemetry is pre-puncture.

[DeltaV]

If the dark area is due to charring, that took several seconds. We're not talking neutron beams or phasers here. The charring would coincidentally improve beam energy absorption.

Meanwhile, the tank temperature*/pressure go higher until rupture, either from overstress or finally a burn through.

Of course an internal fire could also cause charring, but it would have to occur between the tank wall and stage 2's outer wall, perhaps a short circuit. But is that much current available in the wiring?

*Edit: If boiling oxygen is like boiling water, then temp. would stay the same while vapor pressure goes up.
If it was boiling. I hated thermo class. Nightmares about phase diagrams.