SpaceX News

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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dnavas
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby dnavas » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:22 pm

williatw wrote:SpaceX BFR construction will start in 4 to 6 months


It is my understanding that the ship will be built and tested prior to the booster. There are a number of design choices that concern me about the orbital vessel. The relatively large surface area will put it at higher risk for orbital debris hits, and it's all-integrated design doesn't have an escape system. Dragon 2 (and Boeing's equivalent) are failing to meet 1:1000 LOC, and true airline numbers are more than three orders of magnitude higher, so I don't see suborbital flights as being a good bet either. The payload-only version looks ridiculous with that big hinged section and feels like an afterthought (but that's surely more aesthetics than technical). I'd like to see the plan for reusability on the re-entry heat shielding.

I'd like to see a return to airplane-like reuse at least as much as the next person, but this feels like a hail mary. I'm going to cheer for pass completion, because the only opposing team is entropy, really, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if there were separate second stage / payload sections with an evolutionary path from there to this (second stage stays attached for interplanetary trips).

I look forward very much to seeing what comes out of this design iteration.

Skipjack
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Skipjack » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:34 pm

BFR will replace all of SpaceX launchers, even Falcon 9 because it can be operated more cost efficiently due to the fact that the second stage is reusable as well and reuse is more rapid than with F9.
And they already have at least one mission for BFR and that is to launch the SpaceX internet satellite constellation.

paperburn1
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby paperburn1 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:27 am

Skipjack wrote:BFR will replace all of SpaceX launchers, even Falcon 9 because it can be operated more cost efficiently due to the fact that the second stage is reusable as well and reuse is more rapid than with F9.
And they already have at least one mission for BFR and that is to launch the SpaceX internet satellite constellation.

yes but your looking at least a decade away and the Falcons will go by attrition so it might take even longer.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

Aero
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Aero » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:53 am

Question.
If you were SpaceX and you had many Falcon 9's with a range of launches left on their lifetime, and a few new BFR/BFS's rated at 50 launches per lifetime, how would you decide which vehicle to use? Obviously, each Falcon 9 launch preserves one launch of the big rocket for later use which must have a dollar value, but how to put a dollar number on it?
Aero

RERT
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby RERT » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:15 am

Not enough information. I think it depends on the relative launch costs of an F9 payload with the two platforms. Costs probably just means operating costs, as the capital cost of a launch of each is the same - a fiftieth of the cost of a BFR, if you will never replace the F9. If you always make more profit using the BFR, surely you would always choose to launch with it unless you have more payloads than BFRs? If the F9s are more profitable, use them up first and make more money sooner.

Skipjack
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Skipjack » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:26 pm

paperburn1 wrote:
Skipjack wrote:BFR will replace all of SpaceX launchers, even Falcon 9 because it can be operated more cost efficiently due to the fact that the second stage is reusable as well and reuse is more rapid than with F9.
And they already have at least one mission for BFR and that is to launch the SpaceX internet satellite constellation.

yes but your looking at least a decade away and the Falcons will go by attrition so it might take even longer.

They have more falcons than they can use right now. They are scrapping the old cores since they are running out of storage and the new block 5s will have at least 10 reuses between major overhauls and then some more. Also, I SpaceX expects the first BFR to be doing test flights by 2020. Factoring in the Elon Time Dilation, I think it will be 2022 at latest. So definitely not a decade away anymore. So not sure where you get that idea of "at least a decade".
The BFR will cost a lot less to operate than Falcon 9, even the cost per launch will be lower. The reason is rapid reuse and second stage reuse as well as an integrated fairing for the cargo version. I think the initial launches for their constellation will be done using Falcon 9s and heavies, though.

paperburn1
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby paperburn1 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:43 pm

That is based on current potential production rates of 40 cores a year and the several hundred engines can be installed in that course of time.(they have a warehouse full of them,over 200) Right now they have only 40 comercial launches under their belt; with reusability factored in they easily have a ten year supply at twice the launch rate they are currently maintaining. Given they have not even made a BFR or flown a BFR engine they can hold out that long before even needing a BFR giving them plenty of time for testing.
Elon said the tooling has already been ordered. So they do not even have the tooling on site yet. The factory is almost complete for BFR production , given this we may see the first demo flight of the BFR sooner that most anticipate, I do not believe Elon would send the first ever two BFR to Mars . so this puts things at the 2024 to 2026 time frame.
Being conservative ten years before regularly scheduled BFR launches
but I will happily be proven wrong if he can get this horse running sooner. But his time is split and right now he is in chile negotiating for mineral rights and possibly a new gigafactory.


Nasa Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1) is a critical flight test and will not even fly until 2020 at the earliest. This is one of the markets BFR is shooting for.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

ladajo
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby ladajo » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:18 pm

Meanwhile, the real question is when will Zuma launch... ?

In any event, the early build Falcons are flight cycle limited. The reflowns were only designed for a 2x or 3x flight profile. Thus, essentially, his original reflowns are now 'expended(ish)'. The data they are collecting from them post flight must be invaluable for future engineering refinements, and associated cost savings. This is where SpaceX is truly ahead of the competition in my mind. Every time they get one back, they get that much more smarter than everyone else. Therefore, I think BFR will come sooner than most think, and it will be based in a big way on lessons learned with the Falcon program. And don't forget, that his transition to Falcon Heavy also means 3 boosters and 27 engines per flight. That is a fast way to chew through "flight proven" stocks, especially for those boosters that are on their last 'design' flight, and can be sacrificed for a heavier or higher lift, and become unrecoverable. Given that he is now (Zuma) looking to effect a planned fairing recovery, and the bulk of Falcon Heavy will be recoverable, we should start seeing some big shifts in his cost model for the better. And that can make him money to help offset BFR development and build for the next few years.

Once he establishes a heavy lift to LEO and beyond, I foresee cargoes that were/are only fantasy now becoming reality in the next 2 to 3 years. Like for example, a Lagrange Station, and permanent moon facilities within the decade, with the precursor or establishing lifts done with Falcon Heavy. We are on the precipice of the next age methinks. Now, what we call it, Space Expansion, Solar Age, or whatever is not so important. It is the getting off Rock 0 in a permanent fashion. I think this will precede the Energy Age, where we finally come up with a first principles fundamental power source. And once we have the two, we will enter the Interstellar Age. Which will probably be followed by the We Are Not Alone Age... (which may end quickly with the They Didn't Like Us Age...) :)

/End Ages Ramble
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Skipjack » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:13 pm

paperburn1 wrote:Elon said the tooling has already been ordered. So they do not even have the tooling on site yet. The factory is almost complete for BFR production , given this we may see the first demo flight of the BFR sooner that most anticipate, I do not believe Elon would send the first ever two BFR to Mars . so this puts things at the 2024 to 2026 time frame.
Being conservative ten years before regularly scheduled BFR launches
but I will happily be proven wrong if he can get this horse running sooner. But his time is split and right now he is in chile negotiating for mineral rights and possibly a new gigafactory.
Nasa Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1) is a critical flight test and will not even fly until 2020 at the earliest. This is one of the markets BFR is shooting for.

SpaceX stated that BFR production would start in 6 months. So it is reasonable to assume that the first BFS will do suborbital test flights some time around the second quarter of 2019 with the booster following around the second quarter of 2020 and the whole stack around the end of 2020. That is my estimate anyway. SpaceX needs the BFR to launch their internet constellation. Launching thousands of satellites with FH and F9 does not seem practical.

ladajo wrote:Meanwhile, the real question is when will Zuma launch... ?


SpaceX seems to think the launch will be tomorrow (7th) in the evening.

ladajo wrote:The reflowns were only designed for a 2x or 3x flight profile. Thus, essentially, his original reflowns are now 'expended(ish)'.

They can launch more often, but need more refurbishment time to do so. The coming block 5 F9 will be able to launch 10 times, with only a day (or so) of refurbishment in between launches, mostly inspections only. This is why SpaceX is trying to get rid of the current set of cores. It makes no sense to keep flying the older models. The refurbishment cost is so much higher than with block 5. Plus, they have collected a pretty big stack of cores now (more than they can store at the moment). So they are trying to get rid of them. Some of them are going straight to scrap now, because they don't know what to do with them.

ladajo wrote:Given that he is now (Zuma) looking to effect a planned fairing recovery, and the bulk of Falcon Heavy will be recoverable, we should start seeing some big shifts in his cost model for the better. And that can make him money to help offset BFR development and build for the next few years.

I think that SpaceX will try to recover their investment into reusability first. They also need the money to develop BFR, which will cost about a billion or so. So prices might not drop that much quite yet ( I expect about 25% discount for "flight proven" cores with F9 block 5). Things will change massively when BFR comes online, though.

ladajo wrote:Once he establishes a heavy lift to LEO and beyond, I foresee cargoes that were/are only fantasy now becoming reality in the next 2 to 3 years. Like for example, a Lagrange Station, and permanent moon facilities within the decade, with the precursor or establishing lifts done with Falcon Heavy. We are on the precipice of the next age methinks.

I am really looking forward to a future that is going to be similar to what we see in "The Expanse". With a little bit of luck, we might live to see at least the beginning of that.
I really wished that Musk would consider throwing some money at the guys at MSNW and/or PPPL for their fusion space drives.

Skipjack
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Skipjack » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:14 pm

Double post, sorry :(
Last edited by Skipjack on Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

paperburn1
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby paperburn1 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:40 am

A good video to watch on a cold saturday night.
Has a good bit in simulation and why it is necessary.
(yea I am a sim tech)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txk-VO1hzBY
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

Tom Ligon
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Tom Ligon » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:11 am

The judges should have watched this one. No word yet on the second stage other than it was on its way and deployed its fairing. The first stage launch looked perfect, and as nearly as I can tell, a bullseye landing. This night stuff can be entertaining.

Now, let's see that big sucker fly a car to Mars!

Betruger
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Betruger » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:28 am

Skipjack wrote:I am really looking forward to a future that is going to be similar to what we see in "The Expanse". With a little bit of luck, we might live to see at least the beginning of that.
I really wished that Musk would consider throwing some money at the guys at MSNW and/or PPPL for their fusion space drives.

Were curing aging less taboo, it would be almost a certainty instead of a pipe dream. Pre-non-aging/post-scarcity/etc Sci-Fi has nothing on what the future of billions and trillions of human monkeys at history's typewriters have in store. Humans will then be more numerous, more diverse culturally and genetically unlimbered, much more experienced on average if aging is cured, and interconnected. Bad apples will still exist and cause some kind of martial law as today's governments but probably nothing as intellectually bleak as our present cradle to grave wage slaving of the majority. Majority that could instead be much closer to the epicurean ideals most people would tend to, given a chance. As they already attempt in voting for more and more power for their favorite politicians.

The sort of robotic enablement in e.g. Dune would be possible sooner than later if the electorate asked for it more specifically. More specifically than voting for massive govt power mongering to give people the free lunch du jour - one election cycle voting right and the next voting left, perpetually back and forth like it's gonna be different this time.

It's just as hard to imagine how to frick up our industrial territory finally encompassing the astronomical volumes of even just the inner solar system's resources, as it is humanity finally allowing itself the astronomical potential of multi-century lifespan. The people of those times will look back at us as barbarians.

Tom Ligon wrote:The judges should have watched this one. No word yet on the second stage other than it was on its way and deployed its fairing. The first stage launch looked perfect, and as nearly as I can tell, a bullseye landing. This night stuff can be entertaining.

Now, let's see that big sucker fly a car to Mars!

And the way it aligned the legs with the bullseye hashes?

Image
Image [click for full res]

Credits for these and other long exposures - these posters at NSF:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index. ... msg1768506

----------

Given :
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index. ... msg1768617
and
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index. ... msg1768627

One wonders what actually happened with the second stage and payload.
You can do anything you want with laws except make Americans obey them. | What I want to do is to look up S. . . . I call him the Schadenfreudean Man.

ladajo
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby ladajo » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:16 pm

<yawn>

:)
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Maui
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Re: SpaceX News

Postby Maui » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:16 pm

2nd image is super cool how u can see all 3 post separation burns on the first stage and when the reentry burn goes from 1 engine to 3 and back again.


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