We won (but have to wait till octobre 2012...)

[KitemanSA]

I liked the part with the "too subtle humour"! Of course man, I'm living in Central America, it's not about scaling laws and budgeting what makes up the success...it has to be at the end of 2012, at least the spirit of Pacal the Great told me so...

All he really mentions is the end of one age and the beginning of another (~Dec 22 2012). Might that not become true if p-11B fusion is demonstrated in Oct 2012?

[KitemanSA]

I will point out that the quote from Godwin is about the Google search term. The part about October 2012 is not in quotation marks, and it is not entirely clear where the author of the article got it.

Sounds like he did a Google search, went to Wikipedia, and found:

FY 2010 and out year work
Other than the Recovery Act Tracking site,[39] there has been no indication to date of the progress being made on this contract.

The contract[37] has these delivery dates for the Contract Line Item Numbers (CLINs).

CLIN 0001 - 30 Apr 2010 (= plasma wiffleball - Completion of device build.
CLIN 0002 - 30 Apr 2011 (= Data) - Completion of WB8 testing
CLIN 0003 - 31 Oct 2011 (= Optional WB 8.1) - Completion of optional device build
CLIN 0004 - 31 Oct 2012 (= Optional Data) - Completion of optional device testing
The first quarterly report on the Recovery Act site stated: The main focus of this quarter was the design, procurement and construction of equipment for the new WB-8 Polywell device. Theoretical work was also initiated to build the computational tools required to analyze and understand the data from WB-8.

[Ivy Matt]

Of course man, I'm living in Central America, it's not about scaling laws and budgeting what makes up the success...it has to be at the end of 2012, at least the spirit of Pacal the Great told me so...

Oh, Pacal, d'oh! For some reason I kept misreading that as Pascal. I suppose Pacal the Great would be more in the know than Richard Godwin, but why would he be particularly interested in the Polywell?

I wonder if there are any prophecies about VASIMR....

[Betruger]

Maybe a question for...

[Emmet]

I liked the part with the "too subtle humour"! Of course man, I'm living in Central America, it's not about scaling laws and budgeting what makes up the success...it has to be at the end of 2012, at least the spirit of Pacal the Great told me so...

All he really mentions is the end of one age and the beginning of another (~Dec 22 2012). Might that not become true if p-11B fusion is demonstrated in Oct 2012?

Does Mr. Godwin know that he causes people to thematize religious questions in a fusion-forum? Would he like to hear so? Anyway I have to respond to this because Pacal won't.

Of course it will be the end of an age and the beginning of an other...but the question is more if Maya could have known something about or if it's random. I would answer "yes and no". On one hand Maya did something really unique. The same way Aristoteles postulated the existence of atoms without having any chance to check it out, Maya postulated the existence of a super-star which is the center of the other stars who are circling it - basically a supermassive black hole. That idea before Einstein is truly exclusive Mayan. That's very, very admirable.

But they put 26000 years as the time of a galactic year what of course is much too short for a star to go around a galaxy. But these 26000 years cycles are the basis for the decembre 2012 thing...

If someone is looking for a dark edge where science and magic are doing adult things with each and other that maybe the quantum entanglement stuff. If you disagree I'll drink from your bones.

[Emmet]

Of course man, I'm living in Central America, it's not about scaling laws and budgeting what makes up the success...it has to be at the end of 2012, at least the spirit of Pacal the Great told me so...

Oh, Pacal, d'oh! For some reason I kept misreading that as Pascal. I suppose Pacal the Great would be more in the know than Richard Godwin, but why would he be particularly interested in the Polywell?

I wonder if there are any prophecies about VASIMR....

The Gods are overqualified for prophecies about VASIMR. The mortal Chang-Diaz believes that the only serious issue with it is the energy source which has to be relatively strong to get somewhere with it. But this possible energy source....well....maybe not here but there: www.talk-polywell.org

[chrismb]

All he really mentions is the end of one age and the beginning of another (~Dec 22 2012). Might that not become true if p-11B fusion is demonstrated in Oct 2012?

Doubt it. When did a 'new age' start when we started using fission power?

All it will mean for a while is that other energy generating schemes will come down in price to meet it. Eventually, if fusion works out without any complications, it will dominate but I suspect not quicker than a generation or two. Thereagain, in the 'log view; I suppose that could look quick enough to be considered a distinct change of era.

[KitemanSA]

All he really mentions is the end of one age and the beginning of another (~Dec 22 2012). Might that not become true if p-11B fusion is demonstrated in Oct 2012?

Doubt it. When did a 'new age' start when we started using fission power?

Hey, dude or dudette, get with the flow! Tis painfully obvious from the mystical base that fission is just a blip on the a$$ end of the last age and may actually prove to be the nail in its coffin. Winter 2012 STARTS a new age it doesn't mean that new age will spring full blown into existance. But IF Polywell is proven viable in October 2012, will that NOT signal the start of a new age? Remember, we are talking roughly 26 THOUSAND year spans. Wouldn't fusion take over during that 26 THOUSAND year span? ... ... ...

Thereagain, in the 'log view; I suppose that could look quick enough to be considered a distinct change of era.

See, even this other guy agrees with me!

[Emmet]

Maybe anyone has an opinion about, independently of if Mr. Godwin wanted to indicate that, or if Navy/EMC2/government are planning it this way, the better strategy in economic and political dimension would be to start comercialization on DD basis or better to skip it? That was the point I wanted to hear about, not so much why it has to finish end of 2012.

I was thinking of it shortly after the accident in Fukushima. Summer this year could be an extremely bad moment to present a nuclear project to public. It's not that I don't know that a polywell can't explode and that DD fusion doesn't produce radioactive waste while leaves only very slight radiation at the sorrounding tubes etc. Of course it would be much better in any aspect than uranium.

The advantage of DD would be to replace rapidly uranium and carbon plants while keeping in use the sorrounding structure. But if both are worked out, DD and pB11, than I guess there would be no argument pro DD, correct me if I'm wrong. If time were to press too much maybe because of oil peak than one and a half year would be important and I guess maybe DD could be applicated quicker, cheaper and easier (?)

Anyway pB11 can be "sold" as something completely different to atomic energy. Many people I talked to are too suspicious about it, they ask "but it is nuclear?", most people are too afraid of nukes, even the words fission and fusion sound so similar. Remember that Navy even put a different name (AGEE) to it! People like to hear that pB11 is like a X-ray machine, no one is afraid of X-rays.

So if you can use a polywell to boil water with neutrons but you can do much better with it, catching helium cores with ultrathin wires to induce electricity (if I get it right) than it's not better starting directly with it? I understood Mr. Godwin this way but this was maybe just because I was waiting exactly for this to happen. I would like to know if there are disadvantages. Is it true (I don't remember where I read this) that a pB11 powered country would have to exchange its electrical wire system?

[kunkmiester]

turbines are a massive capital investment, and if that investment has been made, the minor investment in switching your boiler over is minor, and lets you get value back for the investment in the other infrastructure, even if it's not as efficient as the PB11 plant.

So, 10-50 million to convert a plant, or 200+ for a whole new one, which would you choose?

[Emmet]

turbines are a massive capital investment, and if that investment has been made, the minor investment in switching your boiler over is minor, and lets you get value back for the investment in the other infrastructure, even if it's not as efficient as the PB11 plant.

So, 10-50 million to convert a plant, or 200+ for a whole new one, which would you choose?

I know that it's cheaper, I wrote that it's the only argument I can think of. But are there other arguments? Given the fact that pB11 will work equally good as DD, what could argue for DD without mentioning time and money?

[ladajo]

That my friend is a question for the bean counters. And, I highly suspect the answer would be greatly circumstantial.

My bet is that we will see some DD & DT plant conversions. And new builds will probably go for PB&J (if it proves out viable).

[KitemanSA]

Dang, you beat me to that answer, lad'y boy!
But let me add that something designed to be large enough for pB&J would be plenty big for DD. Indeed, if I were looking to fund one NOW, I'd size/price it a bit big for the pB&J just to have a bit of lee way.

[Emmet]

Dang, you beat me to that answer, lad'y boy!
But let me add that something designed to be large enough for pB&J would be plenty big for DD. Indeed, if I were looking to fund one NOW, I'd size/price it a bit big for the pB&J just to have a bit of lee way.

Does that mean that you can use a polywell dedicated to pB11 for DD too but NOT vice versa? A downward compability like with DVD/CD?

[KitemanSA]

According to what I have read, the pB&J reactor needs to be ~30% bigger for a given output. (1.5m for DD, 2m for pB&J). So, a pB&J size reactor can do the same output with DD but not vice versa.

There are all SORTS of other issues to handle, like neutron bombarment design issues, but it seems to me that minor tweaks on the shield of the MaGrid would allow conversion to DD if needed. ICBW.