Any News about Polywell ?

[bennmann]

Oh no, I don't think we'll know much of anything outside of Rick's good graces and the recovery act! My speculation is just that, speculation. However I try to base it on deduction as much as possible.

But you're right to assume we won't know anything else for some years, even if there's evidence that we may know more sooner. The chances at finding out more information should be spoken of nonetheless (like the recovery act, and the funding of WB-8.1 should it come about), but the expectation should not be on data acquisition until Rick and the Navy decide the time is right - they have full authority (legal and moral) over disclosure.

Knowledge is the only way to cure my hope though.

[Enginerd]

If this contract goes to phase 3 we probably won't hear anything until 2015-18 at the earliest.

If the idea is totally dead in the water, producing a shiny new and expensive device which takes more energy to produce fusion then it creates (i.e. just like every other fusion approach to date (other than being a star)), funding will dry up quickly. Clearly that would prove rather telling... And at which point, a FOIA request would likely fair much better to see what killed the project (i.e. they discovered that a fully scaled Polywell produced Q=0.3).

On the other hand, if it actually works as hoped, and demonstrates genuine, harvestable, net power from pb11 fusion (with say Q=30), I expect there would be some immediate and very clear indicators. Suppose for example, EMC2 is granted a follow on contract such as "$1 billion to design and produce 1000 Polywell based modular power plants for Navy ships". Clearly that would also be somewhat telling...

[KitemanSA]

If this contract goes to phase 3 we probably won't hear anything until 2015-18 at the earliest.

If the project goes to Phase 3 without a big hiatus, we will hear about it before the end of October 2012. That is the date for the delivery of the final data of the extended contract (WB 8.1). This of course assumes FedGov funding of some sort. VC funding we may never hear about.

[Aero]

If this contract goes to phase 3 we probably won't hear anything until 2015-18 at the earliest.

If the project goes to Phase 3 without a big hiatus, we will hear about it before the end of October 2012. That is the date for the delivery of the final data of the extended contract (WB 8.1). This of course assumes FedGov funding of some sort. VC funding we may never hear about.

The possibility exists that the project could be successful and go black, just so the Navy can get a 3 to 5 year jump on implementation. Once we have BFR powered ships in the fleet I think we will hear rumors of it.

You know people, if Polywell works as envisioned, it really is not a complicated device. How long would the navy build out take? Not very long, and it wouldn't take unfriendly forces long either. It may be to the US Navy's disadvantage if Polywell works. We go from fission nucs and gas turbines to all fusion nucs, but they go from diesel and gas turbine to a mix with fusion nucs. Their upgrade is better than ours and that is a reason for the navy to take the program black.

[GIThruster]

Classification costs too much money. If USG classifies the project they then have to provide security and there is too little to gain. The discoveries that have been made are trade secrets that are easy to keep just by not sharing them, so it's very unlikely the project has been or will be classified.

[Aero]

Anyone see this? Just another potential application with money. What is the cost of a polywell compared to a diesel? Of course the polywell would be more stealthy and a lot faster.
http://amfix.blogs.cnn.com/2010/07/07/d ... submarine/

[hanelyp]

If the Navy started putting fusion reactors on ships there would be tell tale clues if you knew where to look. The fact of fusion power being used isn't enough of a strategic advantage to bother with keeping it secret. How exactly the reactor works, on the other hand, would be a far more valuable secret and easier to keep. As I understand, no effort was made to keep the use of fission reactors on Navy vessels a secret. But certain practical details were, and may still be, secret.

[AcesHigh]

suppose it works, and the NAVY sets out contracts for polywell reactors to its ships.

how long until civil society get to use the technology? I mean, how long until the US solves its energy problems with the polywell? Or do the navy plan to keep it to itself?

[Aero]

If the Navy started putting fusion reactors on ships there would be tell tale clues if you knew where to look. The fact of fusion power being used isn't enough of a strategic advantage to bother with keeping it secret. How exactly the reactor works, on the other hand, would be a far more valuable secret and easier to keep. As I understand, no effort was made to keep the use of fission reactors on Navy vessels a secret. But certain practical details were, and may still be, secret.

I was thinking that a Polywell fusion plant and direct conversion would be much less expensive than a fission plant and steam system. It could also be built much more quickly with fewer highly skilled mechanical types required. End result being that NKorea and Iran could retro-fit their navy with Polywell fusion, gaining the benefit of a nuclear navy that they could never achieve with fission.

As for the secret of How the reactor works, well, once it is known to work, figuring out exactly how is just a research project. Hundreds of countries/companies could do that.

My argument is cost and time. I estimate that to construct 10 power plants (Polywell fusion) would take less than 10% of the time and less than 10% of the money that it would take to construct 10 fission power plants.

[luked]

End result being that NKorea and Iran could retro-fit their navy with Polywell fusion, gaining the benefit of a nuclear navy that they could never achieve with fission.

How about the end result being that we'll happily give them fusion reactors? That sort of invalidates the argument that somehow they're entitled to continue nuclear enrichment for energy purposes.

I'd be much happier with my enemies having access to fusion power than having a lot of weapons-grade material available.

[KitemanSA]

The possibility exists that the project could be successful and go black, just so the Navy can get a 3 to 5 year jump on implementation. Once we have BFR powered ships in the fleet I think we will hear rumors of it.

I am under the impression that it is illegal to classify fusion research results. This would sugget that they CAN'T go black. They MAY be able to go more tight lipped somehow, but not thru classification.

I predict that there will be a flurry of patent submissions sometime near October 2012, or this thing will die. To go further than the current contract would imply there is a REAL chance of success, enough of a chance that VCs will pay ANYONE to work on it unless there is patent protection. JMHO.

[Aero]

I'd be much happier with my enemies having access to fusion power than having a lot of weapons-grade material available

Good point, but does anyone believe that we could buy them off by giving them fusion? We haven't had much luck buying them off with anything else we've offered.

I am under the impression that it is illegal to classify fusion research results.

Oh yea, I forgot about that.

[GIThruster]

Probably all of the sensitive information in the Poly subject is considered "Critical Program Information" (CPI), which allows restricted access to it without forcing USG to provide expensive security measures. It is perfectly legal to handle subjects like this without classification, and to restrict access even by FOI.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classified ... ted_States

[luked]

I'd be much happier with my enemies having access to fusion power than having a lot of weapons-grade material available.

Good point, but does anyone believe that we could buy them off by giving them fusion? We haven't had much luck buying them off with anything else we've offered.

We don't really have to buy them off. Without the "access to nuclear power" claim we can categorically characterize most enrichment activity as weapons-related, and call them on it. They can't go to China/Russia/etc. anymore using the "peaceful reasons for enrichment" argument to get things blocked in various governing bodies anymore.

[GIThruster]

That's a decision subject to executive authority, which means it will probably stay as a trade secret, like 40 years of US rocket science, until some foreign power offers the DNC $40 million in campaign contributions for it.