Polywell FOIA

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:50 pm

Depends what you mean by "waste". I would expect an economist, politician or business man to use such a term, but engineers should know that money isn't "a thing" but is merely the virtual representation of a bargain.


Well OK not waste. Entropy increase without doing useful work.

But as an engineer I have to deal with economists, politicians and especially businessmen. So I like to talk in language they can understand. Otherwise I don't get the assignment and/or my projects don't get funded.

So consider my posts as a language lessons and you can't go far wrong. Or get your shorts needlessly in a knot.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:55 pm

People get locked up for selling 'dreams' - impossibly expensive vacuum cleaners, or double glazing you don't need, but it seems OK to sell, for cash, the mere *idea* of buying something!!!!???


Well it has its uses. Under most circumstances it is a pretty good method for determining the price of a given good some time in the future. i.e. you get the crowd wisdom to tell you what they expect the future price to be.

Perfect? Well no. But it beats the hell out of five year plans.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Art Carlson
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Postby Art Carlson » Fri Mar 05, 2010 11:06 pm

MSimon wrote:If we are going to waste money on fusion ...

Let's not.
The name of the game is (clean and economical) power. Both tokamaks and polywells are far from the top of my list of expected ROI. Put the funding in efficiency, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, biomass, ... .

jabowery
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Postby jabowery » Fri Mar 05, 2010 11:39 pm

Art Carlson wrote:
MSimon wrote:If we are going to waste money on fusion ...

Let's not.
The name of the game is (clean and economical) power. Both tokamaks and polywells are far from the top of my list of expected ROI. Put the funding in efficiency, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, biomass, ... .


Art, where, on your ROI rank ordering, would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system?
Last edited by jabowery on Fri Mar 05, 2010 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Fri Mar 05, 2010 11:43 pm

Art,

We don't need more funding for solar or wind. We need to put the effort into storage. Solar and wind are doing fine and we KNOW where on the cost curve we are and what can be expected (near term).

Where we are failing horribly is storage. Or making liquid fuel from intermittent electric power.

About 6 or 8 years ago I went on a jihad about that. Nothing. I think it is a matter of education. People are easily moved by energy. Not so easy by storage. That may just be beginning to change with so much stuff battery powered.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Fri Mar 05, 2010 11:55 pm

Art, where would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system in your ROI list?


Care to get bonded on such a scheme? My guess is that the bonding agency would ask for 999 million plus a 10% a year fee.

Now personally I place the odds higher than that. But still.

=======

Art - there are companies out there who think enough of Polywell to put up $10 million to build a continuous operation test device. In other words they think a .1% chance of success (or what ever they estimate the odds) is worth that big a bet given the estimated payoff. I'm sure such companies would have had some physics guys look at the device and estimate the odds.

It is not just the risk. It is the risk/reward.

Now no such deal has gone through yet that I'm aware of (maybe some one already has an option on EMC2). But from my experience the deals so far have failed on other factors than technical.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

jabowery
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Postby jabowery » Sat Mar 06, 2010 12:10 am

MSimon wrote:
Art, where would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system in your ROI list?


Care to get bonded on such a scheme?


Unnecessary since the investment is in escrow until success is demonstrated.

Its called a prize fund. Read the legislation.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Sat Mar 06, 2010 12:12 am

jabowery wrote:
MSimon wrote:
Art, where would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system in your ROI list?


Care to get bonded on such a scheme?


Unnecessary since the investment is in escrow until success is demonstrated.

Its called a prize fund. Read the legislation.


If the odds are 1 in 1,000 then it is worth a $1 million effort. I think you need a 10X bigger prize.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

jabowery
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Postby jabowery » Sat Mar 06, 2010 12:29 am

MSimon wrote:
jabowery wrote:
MSimon wrote:
Art, where would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system in your ROI list?


Care to get bonded on such a scheme?


Unnecessary since the investment is in escrow until success is demonstrated.

Its called a prize fund. Read the legislation.


If the odds are 1 in 1,000 then it is worth a $1 million effort. I think you need a 10X bigger prize.


Do you put the odds of Polywell at 1 in 1,000?

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Sat Mar 06, 2010 1:47 am

jabowery wrote:
MSimon wrote:
jabowery wrote:
MSimon wrote:
Art, where would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system in your ROI list?


Care to get bonded on such a scheme?


Unnecessary since the investment is in escrow until success is demonstrated.

Its called a prize fund. Read the legislation.


If the odds are 1 in 1,000 then it is worth a $1 million effort. I think you need a 10X bigger prize.


Do you put the odds of Polywell at 1 in 1,000?


More like 5 out of 10. But if I was an outsider that is about where I think some one who hadn't studied the matter for a few years might put it.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

jabowery
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Postby jabowery » Sat Mar 06, 2010 3:29 am

MSimon wrote:
jabowery wrote:
MSimon wrote:
jabowery wrote:
MSimon wrote:
Art, where would you put a $1billion investment with guaranteed success in producing a working prototype p-B11 fusion system in your ROI list?


Care to get bonded on such a scheme?


Unnecessary since the investment is in escrow until success is demonstrated.

Its called a prize fund. Read the legislation.


If the odds are 1 in 1,000 then it is worth a $1 million effort. I think you need a 10X bigger prize.


Do you put the odds of Polywell at 1 in 1,000?


More like 5 out of 10. But if I was an outsider that is about where I think some one who hadn't studied the matter for a few years might put it.


Due diligence is to be expected and the diligence due on something like fusion is going to be great. But after said due diligence if they decide it is only 1 in 10 that they can achieve only the first milestone -- basically enough net-energy from D-T to make up for losses in conversion to electricity -- that's $100M in the bank. That's several million right there.

chrismb
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Postby chrismb » Sat Mar 06, 2010 7:29 am

jabowery wrote:Do you put the odds of Polywell at 1 in 1,000?

the odds are 1:10^10, this being the "fusion to cross-section [ratio]" thermalisation issue that it needs to overcome.

KitemanSA
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Postby KitemanSA » Sat Mar 06, 2010 11:35 am

Twelve.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Sat Mar 06, 2010 11:47 am

Due diligence is to be expected and the diligence due on something like fusion is going to be great.


Except for one thing. I have been studying the matter for 3 years or so and there are no reliable estimates. Not even mine. Just a lot of personal opinion.

Just look at what we have seen here so far (two or three data points)

1 in 2. 1 in 1,000. 1 in 10^10.

Those numbers are not even in the same ball park.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

chrismb
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Postby chrismb » Sat Mar 06, 2010 2:24 pm

They are within an order-of-magnitude-of-exponent! How close d'you want to get!! :wink:


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