Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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Giorgio
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Postby Giorgio » Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:34 am

hanelyp wrote:Power scaling of R^3*B^4 is well established physics. Assuming the magnetic field is limited by current density in the magnets, B proportionate to R is a plausible engineering estimate. This leads to R^7 power. Assuming R^2 losses, R^5 power gain.

I would like to have your belief but, as discussed in another thread, the only way to establish this rule is to actually build it to the desired size.
There is a ton of phenomena that might get amplified as size scales up, and might play against (or in favour) of power scaling.

Giorgio
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Postby Giorgio » Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:51 am

ladajo wrote:'bout that time again.
Any bets this time on the report?

I say, "testing behind, fuel introduced, fusions produced, anticipate full power testing by May 2011, projection for WB8 project completion by July, 2011, with final report by September 2011."

I say,"testing behind, fuel introduced, fusions produced, MIB knocked on door, facility moved to Roswell" :D

mvanwink5
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Postby mvanwink5 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:35 am

I can remember when scientists strongly believed the moon was covered in a 10 foot deep dust layer, and that if a space craft landed, it would sink and be buried. I am not sure how many here were around back in those days that might remember all the speculation that went on before we actually found out what was really there.

We all might look back at today with the same amazement at all the different speculations. Too much fun! We are still in a world of major discovery.

Feels like waiting for Christmas again.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:07 pm

D Tibbets wrote:
mvanwink5 wrote:First plasma November 1, 2010, so nearly six months of operation with plasma. I wonder if R. Nebel has had WB-8 up to full power yet, or if he is being methodical and won't know what it looks like at maximum for a while?


I have speculated before about how much faster the data collection may be for this presumably magnet cooled machine. With WB6,7, the magnets would have to be cooled down while maintaining deep vacuums. The time between tests may have been a minimum of a few hours for the uncooled machines, and only a few minutes for WB8. . It also depends on the vacuum pumping. I suspect that even the vacuum vessel for WB8 is smaller than the large tank they had for WB6, so pumping time limits were probably also shorter- to clear the gas after each run.

I speculate that the first tests were plasma studies, magnet testing, gradual build up. Wiffleball tests, then lower B, lower Volt tests, and a few tests to near maximum B and Voltage tests. Then they probably backed of and did numerous tests as they gradually scaled up B and V levels. Finally, maximum B and V tests to try to squeeze out the most scaling information. With better controls, they might also significantly push the duration of tests- instead of a fraction of a millisecond, they might manage several hundred milliseconds. That would be very valuable in arguments about thermalization issues, more more truely steady state operation.

In, short they may have bee able to acquire critical information within a couple of months of first plasma. Provided the machine survives, they could then probably spend many months testing subtle effects as they twist the knobs.

Then again, they may be struggling with various problems, and be stalled.

Dan Tibbets


I think that given the consequences of this testing phase, that they are going very methodically.
Also, do not forget that they are doing ion injection, vice gas puff. That changes the testing dynamic as well.

D Tibbets
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Postby D Tibbets » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:41 pm

Very methodical, yes. But what does that mean? A straight forward interpretation would be that they begin small and gradually build up, but considering the real chance of a magnetic coil failure at anytime, even at low loads, some early moderately high level tests may be warranted. As in many threads, the arguments all start with certain assumptions. It's all speculation anyway and has little predictive value.

Dan Tibbbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:21 pm

In regard to the coils, that is not so true. Thye learned frmo teh WB6 rubbing failure, and to quote Rick, WB7 runs like a top, you can collect data on it all day long. In fact, they may still have been doing runs on it while waiting for WB8 pieces parts. Why not?
I would assume :) that they have carried the coil and container design lessons forward to WB8.

If I had to put my money on it, I would say that if they have not gotten to fueled full potential already, that they are pretty well along.

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Thu Apr 28, 2011 1:53 am

And, just to add "fuel" to the fire, Linked-In now shows Dr Richard Nebel of Santa Fe, New Mexico as a "Independent Research Professional".

What up with that?

D Tibbets
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Postby D Tibbets » Thu Apr 28, 2011 2:35 am

Dr Nebel in Santa Fa? Now that is fuel for wild speculation!. Did they have a falling out, conflict on course of action? Does Nebel wish to pursue POPS or other research at LANL? It probably pays better. Is he satisfied (or despondent) with the results and does not desire to continue in what might be a mostly engineering or futile effort?
Is Nebel unhappy that he cannot reveal the results like he promised in a different forum a couple of years ago? Does Nebel hate California? does Nebel fear earthquakes (I just watched the movie 2012)? Did he get paid off by the oil companies? Did EMC2 get bought off by the coal companies? ...

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

Ivy Matt
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Postby Ivy Matt » Thu Apr 28, 2011 3:08 am

Did Nebel get canned for vaporizing the facility in February?
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.

Giorgio
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Postby Giorgio » Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:12 am

ladajo wrote:And, just to add "fuel" to the fire, Linked-In now shows Dr Richard Nebel of Santa Fe, New Mexico as a "Independent Research Professional".

What up with that?

Are you thinking that he quitted from the navy research contract?

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Thu Apr 28, 2011 11:56 am

I think that his name being taken off the Recovery.gov reporting is a big clue, and that the Linked-in reference is another.

DeltaV
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Postby DeltaV » Thu Apr 28, 2011 12:35 pm

Another possibility:
Nebel is a theorist. Park is an experimentalist.
Theory confirmed? Nebel now available for consulting.

Or, theory falsified...

KitemanSA
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Postby KitemanSA » Thu Apr 28, 2011 12:55 pm

DeltaV wrote:Another possibility:
Nebel is a theorist. Park is an experimentalist.
Theory confirmed? Nebel now available for consulting.

Or, theory falsified...
Or: results "nuanced", theory partially supported, not as good as we had hoped but better than we had feared, more tests at another scale are needed to clarify the questions, and I'm just too old for this...

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Thu Apr 28, 2011 2:03 pm

Sounds like you are slowly moving towards Chris's position of gravy train development...
:D

dnavas
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Postby dnavas » Thu Apr 28, 2011 2:09 pm

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/richard-nebel/29/658/752

One wonders when the interest in career opportunities and new ventures began. Sorry to hear.

-Dave


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