Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

[bennmann]

"Well Park, it works. What do you need?"

"50% more."

[mvanwink5]

Need for high power independent e-guns was known and publicly pointed out by Dr. Bussard. There was really no surprises here. It smells like cover smoke blowing to me. The question in my mind is cover for what? (I have a stack of tin hats so this suspicion was easy to pull off).
Best regards

PS I still wonder which has a smaller volume footprint, D-T or B-11? Also, which is quicker to boat? I suspect D-T on both counts. If so, might the Navy be interested in small and quick, hence plus up to obtain WB-8 nuanced details, WB-8.1 for later, lower priority?

[ladajo]

Maybe they finally figured out they can not keep DT success quiet unless they forgo the immediate transition to PB&J. In effect presenting an appearance of slow rolling 8.0 progress, while setting a very strong base to quickly transition to 8.1
<removes foil hat>
We really have not public indication on how well 8.0 has done to date other than the seeming ready willingness of ONR to toss them a 50% plus up on contract and the previous commentary and J&A verbage which seems to indicate other than E-guns, they are getting all they expected. Logically that seems to say that even the drive capability they had, they got what they planned for. In simple terms, I have seen nothing that indicates they have not been tracking on modelled predictions, which in itself is big news IMHO. And given the austere $$ environment these days, I can not imagine that ONR would roll dice that dramatically without a solid foundation to base the decision on.
Money really is tight these days, and heads roll routinely for "bad calls" and "un-acceptable risk taking".

[happyjack27]

Maybe they finally figured out they can not keep DT success quiet unless they forgo the immediate transition to PB&J. In effect presenting an appearance of slow rolling 8.0 progress, while setting a very strong base to quickly transition to 8.1
<removes foil hat>
We really have not public indication on how well 8.0 has done to date other than the seeming ready willingness of ONR to toss them a 50% plus up on contract and the previous commentary and J&A verbage which seems to indicate other than E-guns, they are getting all they expected. Logically that seems to say that even the drive capability they had, they got what they planned for. In simple terms, I have seen nothing that indicates they have not been tracking on modelled predictions, which in itself is big news IMHO. And given the austere $$ environment these days, I can not imagine that ONR would roll dice that dramatically without a solid foundation to base the decision on.
Money really is tight these days, and heads roll routinely for "bad calls" and "un-acceptable risk taking".

...except when that bad call and un-acceptable risk taking is ITER...

[Ivy Matt]

ITER is the DOE OFES's flagship project, one might say their raison d'être, given how little fusion funding goes to anything else (apart from domestic tokamak research). I took it ladajo was referring more to conditions at the ONR.

[MSimon]

Maybe they finally figured out they can not keep DT success quiet unless they forgo the immediate transition to PB&J. In effect presenting an appearance of slow rolling 8.0 progress, while setting a very strong base to quickly transition to 8.1
<removes foil hat>
We really have not public indication on how well 8.0 has done to date other than the seeming ready willingness of ONR to toss them a 50% plus up on contract and the previous commentary and J&A verbage which seems to indicate other than E-guns, they are getting all they expected. Logically that seems to say that even the drive capability they had, they got what they planned for. In simple terms, I have seen nothing that indicates they have not been tracking on modelled predictions, which in itself is big news IMHO. And given the austere $$ environment these days, I can not imagine that ONR would roll dice that dramatically without a solid foundation to base the decision on.
Money really is tight these days, and heads roll routinely for "bad calls" and "un-acceptable risk taking".

...except when that bad call and un-acceptable risk taking is ITER...

Laughs uncontrollably.

[TallDave]

Logically that seems to say that even the drive capability they had, they got what they planned for. In simple terms, I have seen nothing that indicates they have not been tracking on modelled predictions, which in itself is big news IMHO.

Inference is always dangerous, but I'd have to agree: presumably they've seen WB scaling, because without that, as Rick put it, "we can kiss our butts goodbye." I think we can tentatively rule out a $10M disastrously leaky machine like HEPS was (no offense to Bussard intended!).

I do wonder if they're asking for better e-guns because the thermalization is getting worse (as most of us predicted a year or two back that it probably would in larger machines) and they're not getting the well depth they want. Confinement is the real game, but they'd probably really like some eye-popping D-D fusion counts (iirc we were looking at tens of watts, which would be very impressive for their budget) to impress the hoi polloi before they shoot for p-B11, though with "several anomalies" I should probably not even try to guess.

[ladajo]

Dates Amounts

Date Signed (mm/dd/yyyy) : 05/03/2012
Effective Date (mm/dd/yyyy) : 05/03/2012
Completion Date (mm/dd/yyyy) : 10/31/2013
Est. Ultimate Completion Date (mm/dd/yyyy) : 09/10/2014

........................................................Current.............Total
Action Obligation:...........................$0.00................$7,855,504.14
Base And Exercised Options Value:$5,247,611.00....$16,319,940.95
Base And All Options Value:............$5,247,611.00...$17,558,191.74

Products:
Description Of Requirement: Plasma Wiffleball 8.0

N6893609C0125 Click on "view" for Update P00010

I am very happy. But this $5.25 Million plus up also provides no indication yet of exercising options for 8.1 as I can tell.[/url]

Looks like they spent $1.2 Mil to get through the summer.
Although, I am sure they have pulled more since, and it just has not posted yet.

N6893609C0125 Click on "view" for Update P00010

The total paid out is now at $9,055,504.14 with this $1,200,000.00

[D Tibbets]

PS I still wonder which has a smaller volume footprint, D-T or B-11? Also, which is quicker to boat? I suspect D-T on both counts. If so, might the Navy be interested in small and quick, hence plus up to obtain WB-8 nuanced details, WB-8.1 for later, lower priority?

I think there is no doubt that D-T fusion is the winner for fusion density and easability (word?).

The disadvantages other than a tritium source, inthe D-T reaction is the nasty 17 MeV neutron, the thermal wall loading and the thermal steam plant that has to be included in the system may be as big or bigger than the reactor. D-D fusion, while less easy and less energy dense compared to D-T may be more manageable from an engineering point of view due to that pesky 17 MeV neutron. A direct conversion does not necessarily mean that there does not need to be a cooling plant, but at least a high pressure steam/ turbine combo is not needed.
And, finally, while the P-B reaction is anticipated to require a larger reactor, the thermal wall loading issues may be the size limiting factor for all of the possible systems, in which case the P-B11 would not be at a disadvantage, and it might even have an advantage as only ~ 20% (?) of the fusion energy will have to be handled as heat.

Dan Tibbets

[ladajo]

Please do not forget that D-T is an inherent part of the D-D chain, as previously discussed. It is not the primary, but D-T will occur given the T production in the D-D reactions.

[D Tibbets]

Please do not forget that D-T is an inherent part of the D-D chain, as previously discussed. It is not the primary, but D-T will occur given the T production in the D-D reactions.

Not so.
as described by Bussard, the tritium and helium3 produced in the D-D fusion reactions, do not undergo further significant fusion. This is part of the reactants and products forming a thermalized broth in an ignition machine like in a Tokamak and which does not occur in a Polywell. This is because the KE of these fusion products are well above the potential well, so just like the alpha particle from B-B11 fusion they leave the system before heating the plasma or having enough passes for fusion to be likely.

The only way is for the tritium and He3 to be harvested, processed and reintroduced at energies comparable to the deuterium fuel energy (potential well). Bussard described this as a a specific option in one of his papers. If Q's are marginal with pure D-D fusion, supplementing the energy output by recycling the easy burning tritium may be a necessary portion of the process for it to be practical. It is also a good way to get rid of the otherwise waste tritium. The He3 may have other useful applications.

Dan Tibbets

[rj40]

Please do not forget that D-T is an inherent part of the D-D chain, as previously discussed. It is not the primary, but D-T will occur given the T production in the D-D reactions.

Not so.
as described by Bussard, the tritium and helium3 produced in the D-D fusion reactions, do not undergo further significant fusion. This is part of the reactants and products forming a thermalized broth in an ignition machine like in a Tokamak and which does not occur in a Polywell. This is because the KE of these fusion products are well above the potential well, so just like the alpha particle from B-B11 fusion they leave the system before heating the plasma or having enough passes for fusion to be likely.

The only way is for the tritium and He3 to be harvested, processed and reintroduced at energies comparable to the deuterium fuel energy (potential well). Bussard described this as a a specific option in one of his papers. If Q's are marginal with pure D-D fusion, supplementing the energy output by recycling the easy burning tritium may be a necessary portion of the process for it to be practical. It is also a good way to get rid of the otherwise waste tritium. The He3 may have other useful applications.

Dan Tibbets

Tell him about the Twinkie.

So I know so little about this stuff that I had to laugh. I sort of heard Hermione Grangers voice from one of those Harry Potter films while reading this.

Mixing my film references, but hey.

Any-whooo, not a criticism, I just find it fun to be reminded of how little I know.
Thanks!

[ladajo]

Please do not forget that D-T is an inherent part of the D-D chain, as previously discussed. It is not the primary, but D-T will occur given the T production in the D-D reactions.

Not so.
as described by Bussard, the tritium and helium3 produced in the D-D fusion reactions, do not undergo further significant fusion. This is part of the reactants and products forming a thermalized broth in an ignition machine like in a Tokamak and which does not occur in a Polywell. This is because the KE of these fusion products are well above the potential well, so just like the alpha particle from B-B11 fusion they leave the system before heating the plasma or having enough passes for fusion to be likely.

The only way is for the tritium and He3 to be harvested, processed and reintroduced at energies comparable to the deuterium fuel energy (potential well). Bussard described this as a a specific option in one of his papers. If Q's are marginal with pure D-D fusion, supplementing the energy output by recycling the easy burning tritium may be a necessary portion of the process for it to be practical. It is also a good way to get rid of the otherwise waste tritium. The He3 may have other useful applications.

Dan Tibbets

Dan,
I will have to find the analysis again. But as I recall off the cuff, the T production is enough to add some juice to the chain. I recall doing it, but will have to find it again. I also recall being surprised at the numbers.
Maybe I am remembering wrong. It would not be the first time.
I will look for it. I am a little distracted with work right now, and also out of the country.

[Skipjack]

Well, I think that we can agree that there will be significantly less fusion of D+T in a Polywell fueled with D+D than there would be in a Tok fueled by D+T. I think that this and the much simpler structure makes D+D in a Polywell still an interesting option.

[ladajo]

Yes, I can agree to that.
I just got back into Hotel, and must go out again for a reception. Maybe later tonight I will look for the analysis I did.