Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

[Ivy Matt]

A few comments and questions regarding recent discussions in this thread:

First, regarding the Lockheed-Martin project, what evidence do we have that it's a continuation of the Navy project? Could it not be just as likely that the Air Force said, "Hey, we want something like what the Navy's working on"? And Lockheed-Martin said sure, and found a PhD with the relevant background, and hired him. Or even started the project on their own without any prompting from the military.

Second, what interesting hiring is going on in Idaho? I don't see any obviously relevant job postings currently on the INL website, although it appears most postings don't stay up for more than a month. (I assume INL is what's being talked about here.)

Third, what do people make of the three purchase orders awarded to EMC2 on November 5, December 8, and December 17, 2008, that have the Product/Service Code AC31: "DEFENSE SHIPS (BASIC)"? Studies?

Fourth, in the latest modifications to the current contract, the estimated completion date is the end of this month. Does anybody have any educated guesses as to what, if anything, we're likely to see after that?

[Teemu]

...they need more money for the raw engineering crunch and larger prototype. But DoD can't give them $100 million or more cash as required for that, because that DoE would get involved, and DoE would say that Polywell can't work, and DoE would block larger funding.

This has been conventional wisdom at "talk-polywell" for a number of years. I believe it myself, but I have to ask: how do we know that this is still true?

If we can't back up such statements with facts we start to sound like conspiracy lunatics to people outside of the "talk-polywell" circle....and some of these people are senators and congressmen.

I don't think there is any conspiracy against Polywell, just like there was no conspiracy against maser/laser.

http://www.tengerresearch.com/learn/int ... s_text.htm

Charles Townes:

Well, now, it’s very natural that when you have a new idea there are going to be some people that don’t believe you. A breakthrough… any breakthrough kind of challenges the people in the field. And so a number of people told me, “Oh, that won’t work.” One of the professors at Columbia, a very well known theorist, every time he saw me in the hallway he said, “You know that’s not going to work. You should stop.” Well I looked at it very carefully, I looked at the theory very carefully. I was pretty sure it would work.

My student and I had been working on it about two years — we hadn’t made it work yet but we were coming along. And then the head of the department, Professor (Isidor Isaac) Rabi, a very famous physicist, a Nobel Prize winner, came into my office, and the person who was going to be the next head, Professor (Polykarp) Kusch, who also got a Nobel Prize, came into my office. They came into my office and sat down and said, “Look! That’s not going to work. You know it’s not going to work. We know it’s not going to work. You’re wasting the department’s money — you’ve got to stop.”

Well, that’s the picture, you see. A lot of people don’t always agree with you, especially if you have a new idea. Fortunately I had tenure. That is they couldn’t fire me just because they didn’t agree with me [Laughs]. If I did something wrong, let’s say ethically wrong, they could fire, but not if I just made a mistake in physics. So I said, “No, I think that it has a good chance of working. I’m going to keep going.” They marched out of my office kind of angrily. And we kept going.

Rabi and Kusch were pretty much the biggest names in the field most relevant to maser/laser. In addition, pretty much all big quantum physics establishment names still alive then, Bohr,Von Neumann, etc., thought that maser/laser violated uncertainty principle and were against it. But luckily relatively small basic funding tied to his tenure, which couldn't be taken away from Townes, was enough to make a working prototype. But if had required so much money that he would have had to deal with the more consensus/establishment based big funding assigning bureaucracy, nothing would have come out of it.

[paperburn1]

Second, what interesting hiring is going on in Idaho? I don't see any obviously relevant job postings currently on the INL website, although it appears most postings don't stay up for more than a month. (I assume INL is what's being talked about here.)

?

They just has about 5 physicist/ engineer jobs post on a site that had employer/ undisclosed work location undisclosed when you applied for them. The company was based out of Idaho falls, Idaho about an hour from ARCO. Other than that, no real connection to anything. (unless you count space aliens)
Desperately looking for any sign polywell is going big.

[mvanwink5]

Desperately looking for any sign polywell is going big.

That's because Polywell is being run like a university low budget science project, still, and has lost at least a year and a half as a result (for example using low power e-guns when even Bussard said they wouldn't work because of the small size Polywell being tested). That is as much of my usual rant about this issue I will do (fortunately for those reading). Supposedly, maybe, it's possible we might know something by inference in a couple of months, because of bean counter, gov't bureaucrat info leakage (slipping again, sorry). Just sitting in my internet lawn chair....

I suppose it is more than we get from Tri-Alpha, albeit their budget is more rational for a sane attempt at a world / human civilization, revolutionary power breakthrough.

[Teemu]

Then again, since the patent has run out, perhaps the Navy is shifting any REAL funding to a politically connected company like Lockheed Martin. The timing of their great new reactor seems a bit fortuitous.

Well, there seems to be some decent private funding for reasonable, patent-able ("save the world + become a trillionaire" is much more lucrative than just "save the world" ), fusion projects. Maybe they have managed to secure reasonable private sector funding like Tri Alpha Energy has. If Lockheed's idea is fresh and patent-able or already patented for them, I hope Lockheed fusion will be privately funded. Tri Alpha has either fresh patents or fresh patent-able idea, contrast to the already expired Polywell patent, and they have apparently already managed to raise over $140 million. If their idea is any good, with Lockheed brand, they should have even easier time when it comes to getting private funding for the project.

[jabowery]

A few comments and questions regarding recent discussions in this thread:
...
Fourth, in the latest modifications to the current contract, the estimated completion date is the end of this month. Does anybody have any educated guesses as to what, if anything, we're likely to see after that?

Maybe it will be time for a new FoIA request.

[DeltaV]

I see that ladajo caught the Feb 25, 2013 - $600,000 funding in a post above, but have the additional Apr 29, 2013 - $300,000.00 and May 21, 2013 - $780,000 been mentioned?

FPDS Spreadsheet

"S","N6893609C0125","P00013","17","DEFINITIVE CONTRACT","ENERGY/MATTER CONVERSION CORPORATION","1700","DEPT OF THE NAVY",
"Feb 25, 2013","$600,000.00",,"NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER","541712","RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHYSICAL, ENGINEERING, AND LIFE SCIENCES (EXCEPT BIOTECHNOLOGY)","AG52","R&D- ENERGY: NUCLEAR (APPLIED RESEARCH/EXPLORATORY DEVELOPMENT)","SANTA FE","939528956","NM","875077253","939528956","ENERGY/MATTER CONVERSION CORPORATION",

"S","N6893609C0125","P00014","17","DEFINITIVE CONTRACT","ENERGY/MATTER CONVERSION CORPORATION","1700","DEPT OF THE NAVY",
"Apr 29, 2013","$300,000.00",,"NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER","541712","RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHYSICAL, ENGINEERING, AND LIFE SCIENCES (EXCEPT BIOTECHNOLOGY)","AG52","R&D- ENERGY: NUCLEAR (APPLIED RESEARCH/EXPLORATORY DEVELOPMENT)","SANTA FE","939528956","NM","875077253","939528956","ENERGY/MATTER CONVERSION CORPORATION",

"S","N6893609C0125","P00015","17","DEFINITIVE CONTRACT","ENERGY/MATTER CONVERSION CORPORATION","1700","DEPT OF THE NAVY",
"May 21, 2013","$780,000.00",,"NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER","541712","RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHYSICAL, ENGINEERING, AND LIFE SCIENCES (EXCEPT BIOTECHNOLOGY)","AG52","R&D- ENERGY: NUCLEAR (APPLIED RESEARCH/EXPLORATORY DEVELOPMENT)","SANTA FE","939528956","NM","875077253","939528956","ENERGY/MATTER CONVERSION CORPORATION",

[ladajo]

I don't think I saw the May 2013 Action for the $780K.

I believe this puts the 0125 contract at $11,855,504.14 obligated.

Which still leaves potentially $5 Million or so not obligated. WB8.1 Money I would think.

[mvanwink5]

I like the Navy, they manage this R&D project, with all the delays and issues, all to the penny. Now that is project management! Either someone is polishing the brass or someone needs approval for a civilization changing project and is having a hard time justifying it.

Or, trying to keep this project from being noticed by a budget exception report (sailing under the radar). Like internet lawn chair gnomes wouldn't notice! Was this sudden appearance jus coincidental to the FOIA suggestion? naaaaaaa.

Your choice. Or make up your own...

[mvanwink5]

I wonder if Navy treated Recovery.gov funds separately, thereby providing budget cover for additional work and large e-gun upgrades? That would make sense, but how they would do it would require Pentagon budget skill.

9-30-13 is not far away to be facing the cash coach turning into a pumpkin. Surely they must have a decision, but they just updated FPDS and the exercise of 8.1 option does not show up???

[ladajo]

To be fair, it would appear that FPDS does have some reporting lag.

To be clear, Recovery Act money was "free" to the expending Department. It did not count against Departmental budgeting. It only needed to be vetted and approved as "Recovery" appropriate with the proposal & request and subsequent review and approval. It was, as I stated before, a smart move by whomever thought it up to get some quick 'free' cash for EMC2. But, it did come with a price, and that was the Recovery Act reporting requirements. This reporting was useful for the Gnomes and did provide more insight into project progress while the Act funding was being burned. Once the money ran out, it wouuld appear EMC2 clammed up again hiding under probably questionable logic. They went legally unchallenged to report anymore the "results" of the Recovery Act expenditure. Personally, I tend to think if it was legally challenged, EMC2 would have had to continue reporting, given they are not done, and have not demonstrated in existing reporting the utility and outcome of the Recovery Act funding. It remains unclear, in accordance to Recovery Act guidance, the actual derived benefit to the public on the expediture of the funds. But not reporting also keeps them under the radar by keeping their collective yaps shut.

Just my thoughts.

In any event, FPDS serves its purpose, and IMO it will tell the story soon enough.

[mvanwink5]

Ladajo,
re: "In any event, FPDS serves its purpose, and IMO it will tell the story soon enough."
If the last FPDS budget update is anything to go by then a 9-30-13 contract option exercise, or new contract award could be visible as early as January of next year. At that point, we might find out that the science project fund dribble continues. The point is that hardware funding for continuing project advancement should have happened six months ago. It either hasn't taken place when it should have or the Navy is pursuing military critical tech with economy shaking potential in a lackadaisical fashion.

Believe it or not, I actually have very high regard for the US Navy and their ability to make smart judgements and see the forest and the trees. I find it hard, therefore, to believe that what we see on FPDS is reflective of what is going on. Maybe that is why this lawn chair gnome is keeps checking the rug for crumbs.

Any idea if Tri Alpha has a high enough power density potential for shipboard power?

[ladajo]

ability to make smart judgements and see the forest and the trees

Sometimes it happens by accident and is not understood for a while.

One could argue either way with the two Littoral Combat Ship types.

One could also point out that within DoD, Congress does get a say, and sometimes gets the right answer in spite of DoD. Think DDG Flight III.
While the navy hemmed and hawed, trying to figure out the way ahead, Congress took the obvious answer, "<sic> Build more of what more or less works you idiots".

All that said, I think we are still headed for a force construct drama in about 10 years. And I am not even thinking about Amphibious ships when I say that.

The "Good Idea Fairy" had a freakin' constant Blue Light Special bonanza a DoN over the last ten years. So many trains left the station going god knows where it will take a while to sort it all out. I am guessing that of the current initiatives, probably one third will survive. If that.

Secure the Ranting Lamp.

[mvanwink5]

Yes, well, hind sight cures almost all errors as to what we should have done, almost all. In polywell's case, at this stage it should be, must be, it has to be, well modeled. And scaling we know is understood, because they told us in a budget memo, which is the right way to really know something like that, so unless Jack has a better can of magic electric power beans, I can't see why they would be getting the money from a budget ketchup bottle. Let's face it, fracking gas still is a logistic burden even if it could be tendered half way around the globe. I can't believe polywell hasn't been fast charted for boat or ship deployment.

Face it, the army nor the air force picked up on polywell, and DoE is still looking for their keys under the lamp, so Go Navy.

[mvanwink5]

So, if Tri Alpha works, does it have the power density for primary ship power? Here is an artist sketch for a 100 MW (dual 50 MW side by side) reactors with support equipment. Sketch is on page 8.
Tri Alpha Presentation
Could this be the reason for ketchup budget bottle treatment polywell seems to be getting?