Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

Moderators: tonybarry, MSimon

billh
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby billh » Mon Feb 10, 2014 4:03 am

This was about the last thread that ever had any news about Polywell and now it's gone to compost... :cry:

paperburn1
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby paperburn1 » Mon Feb 10, 2014 4:24 am

I see what you did there.
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

choff
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby choff » Mon Feb 10, 2014 7:20 am

They never checked the toilet at her place, they never visited her place before the day she explained she was off grid. Her crime was being in violation of international guidelines(ICLEI/Agenda 21). First they subsidize wind turbines to shut down the coal plants, then they end the subsidy to create the energy shortage and drive up the rates like in Britian.

It all goes down hill from there.
CHoff

mvanwink5
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby mvanwink5 » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:17 pm

I think this thread went to compost because there have been no .gov updates at the critical time of contract completion - to the penny - and that is an indicator that the Navy has round filed the project. JMO, and bowing to KitemanSA, that is my guess.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

happyjack27
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby happyjack27 » Mon Feb 10, 2014 7:39 pm

perhaps if they described how it could be used as a weapon, they could secure orders of magnitude more funding, and wouldn't have to show any substantial progress...

ladajo
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby ladajo » Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:29 pm

Everyday that ticks by increases the odds that we will hear something from or about EMC2.

We know that they are due another contract. If they don't get it, then that would also mean that they are out from under the "information embargo".

One way or another something will surface. I think sooner than later. The resounding quiet is pushing its limit.

That said, I do not think we can really speculate on the project status without any information at all. And ironically, given there is nothing, it gives me hope that there is something.
One would think that if it was a bust, we would be hearing such from team members.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby Skipjack » Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:48 pm


happyjack27
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby happyjack27 » Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:17 pm

I agree with ladajo, and i think i can speak for both of us when i say it's more careful reasoning than optimism.

There's some admitted probability in it: the presumption is that if their contract did not get renewed, they'd more likely say something about it than not; and consequently we'd likely hear something from them.

It follows thus that either our presumption is incorrect, not enough time has passed, their contract didn't get renewed and the presumably less likely outcome of that happened (namely, they curled their tail up beneath them) or their contract did/will get renewed (and either we will hear about it or we won't). not optimism, just that those are the only possibilities. beyond that, speculating can produce no more information than we already have. q.e.d.

Restated: if our presumption is correct, then either not enough time has passed, the contract is renewed, or the contract is not renewed and the less likely outcome occurred.

If not enough time has passed it a horse a piece, so we need only consider if enough time has passed.
The presumption is that if it wasn't renewed, the odds of hearing something would be better than 50%. If we take the null hypothesis of 50% renewal likilihood, them the odds that the contract has been renewed is equal to the odds of it not being mentioned that it has been renewed, given it has been renewed, to the odds of it not being mentioned that it hasn't been renewed, given it hasn't been renewed.

And the presumption is that the latter probability is low, so unless the numerator is lower, it probably been renewed.


Have I confused you yet?

ladajo
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby ladajo » Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:16 am

EMC would seem to have a limited umber of outcomes, and this is reason based.

Work is viable:
They get a new contract with the navy. Scope of contract defines scope of previous success.

They don't get a new contract with the navy. They seek other funding from government or private. Scope of funding (requested and delivered) defines viability of project.

Work is not viable:
Navy drops contract support. EMC shuts down and goes away. Former employees surface elsewhere, make statements on research results.

Navy continues contract support for a shutdown phase. Former employess release research results.

Given that we have seen no money activity with the navy, and heard not a peep from anyone, logic would seem to indicate that they are somehwere in the work is viable regime. If it was not viable, there would no longer be any reasons for anyone to keep their yaps shut on what went down with the project.

The longer we go with nothing, therefore seems more encouraging (in its own perverse way).

That is my logic. Take it or leave it.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

mvanwink5
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby mvanwink5 » Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:12 am

Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Skipjack
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby Skipjack » Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:43 pm


mvanwink5
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby mvanwink5 » Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:29 pm

Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Skipjack
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby Skipjack » Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:50 pm


mvanwink5
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby mvanwink5 » Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:06 pm

Yes, I agree with that assessment. Timing is hard to determine without prescience, but business valuation and customer decisions are based on perception of the future. Suppose, for instance, one of the dark horses announces effective net fusion and plans for building the net machine; that bombshell in itself will cause a major shift in the whole industry. So, just because the actual machine is years off, change will take place now. And business is valued on growth as perceived. Just saying. 2014 will be the year to remember, so says the 8-ball... :D
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

Skipjack
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Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm
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Re: Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Postby Skipjack » Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:09 pm



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