Major Electronics Magazine Picks Up On Polywell

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

From an information theory perspective a 50% failure rate in research is optimum.

It gets kind of dicey when your experiments cost billions.
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tomclarke
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Post by tomclarke »

MSimon wrote:From an information theory perspective a 50% failure rate in research is optimum.

It gets kind of dicey when your experiments cost billions.
Only if there is only one non-failure outcome.

But then, it would not be research :)

alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

There are some fundamental misunderstandings about hunter-gatherers here.

Firstly, the idea that they don't have any leisure time. Hunter-gatherers have the most leisure time of any people on earth.

Secondly, the idea that they couldn't read. Hunter-gatherers track animals by their spoor - a speed reading feat that few others can equal. Ordinary writing is child's play.

Thirdly, the idea that hunter-gatherers weren't interested in technology. Apart from the obvious example of cave art, the first mines were dug by hunter-gatherers.

I've just spent some time with the Bushmen in the Kalahari Desert. Those guys are seriously bright...
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Tom Ligon
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Post by Tom Ligon »

Maybe they can click us up some fusion?

I'm being mean. I'm sorry.

I recall an article by a teacher of native Alaskan teens. I don't recall the group, but the cultural differences showed a profound difference in problem solving. Other teachers had been frustrated trying to teach them. Given a problem, the kids would just sit there and stare, apparently not paying any attention, and the teachers would give up. What was actually happening was they were working on the problem very meticulously. Given time, they would come up with the right solution.

This particular culture would have been dumbfounded by Fermi's approach. For them, a 50% chance of failure would be a 50% chance of death. They wanted the sure solution the first try. When they finally solved a problem, it was workable.

The Kalahari Bushmen might have a similar attitude.

Dr. Bussard tended to flit from one approach to another, doing a lot of little Fermi experiments. A fair number of these were dead ends, but several showed promise. With that experience to draw on, Nebel, Parks, et. al. seem to be taking more the Eskimo approach, focussing single-mindedly on magrid machines and solving the problems systematically.
Last edited by Tom Ligon on Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Leisure is a trade-off with productivity. We modern humans have the best of both worlds: we get vast benefits from productivity but do relatively little work because we sit on top of a mountain of cumulative productivity gains.

It used to be even making simple rope was a horribly time/labor-intensive process. So you can be a hunter-gatherer with no rope (or other tools) and lots of leisure, or lots of rope and no leisure. This is probably why the OCD gene had survival value.

Writing was only independently developed three times in human history. It was a huge intuitive leap. Virtually all humans can learn to read or hunt, but hunting isn't an intuitive leap.

I don't know why people are ever surprised to find non-tech societies are bright in their respective areas of expertise. Jared Diamond made a big deal about this too. We're not smarter than them, we just have a huge advantage in technology because of all the information we've stored. We all start with the same basic intelligence, it's just a matter of how we're trained to process information with that intelligence, and how much information you have access to.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Tom Ligon wrote:Maybe they can click us up some fusion?

I'm being mean. I'm sorry.

I recall an article by a teacher of native Alaskan teens. I don't recall the group, but the cultural differences showed a profound difference in problem solving. Other teachers had been frustrated trying to teach them. Given a problem, the kids would just sit there and stare, apparently not paying any attention, and the teachers would give up. What was actually happening was they were working on the problem very meticulously. Given time, they would come up with the right solution.

This particular culture would have been dumbfounded by Fermi's approach. For them, a 50% chance of failure would be a 50% chance of death. They wanted the sure solution the first try. When they finally solved a problem, it was workable.

The Kalahari Bushmen might have a similar attitude.

Dr. Bussard tended to flit from one approach to another, doing a lot of little Fermi experiments. A fair number of these were dead ends, but several showed promise. With that experience to draw on, Nebel, Parks, et. al. seem to be taking more the Eskimo approach, focussing single-mindedly on magrid machines and solving the problems systematically.
Which is why you go the high learning route with small experiments. When you start spending serious funds you need a lot lower than a 50% failure rate.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

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Post by TallDave »

This is easily proven. Imagine I built a time machine, and took with me the contents of an entire university library, and dropped it all back in the stone ages. There, in those books, is a reasonable snapshot of the current sum total of human knowledge. What an amazing advantage I've given these hunter gatherers. I'd expect to come back forward to a world of flying cars and no human suffering.

Except...

They're most likely to use all those books as a really good source of quick kindling for their fires than advance their condition. Why? Because that's the application of their knowledge.
In fact, I'd be willing to bet of all pre-Roman civilizations, only the Greeks could have made much use of them. The whole concept of science was very alien to most cultures.

alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

TallDave wrote:Leisure is a trade-off with productivity. We modern humans have the best of both worlds: we get vast benefits from productivity but do relatively little work because we sit on top of a mountain of cumulative productivity gains.

It used to be even making simple rope was a horribly time/labor-intensive process. So you can be a hunter-gatherer with no rope (or other tools) and lots of leisure, or lots of rope and no leisure. This is probably why the OCD gene had survival value.
The Bushmen have tools and leisure.

If they need rope, they just braid it from grass.
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alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

Tom Ligon wrote:Maybe they can click us up some fusion?

I'm being mean. I'm sorry.
Their phenomenal powers of observation would have saved you some time...
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Tom Ligon
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Post by Tom Ligon »

Do I recall the Kalahari Bushmen are cursorial hunters, tracking a single animal with "dogged determination?"

Pick the best target and stick with it. Sounds like a good business plan to me.

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Post by KitemanSA »

MSimon wrote: Which is why you go the high learning route with small experiments. When you start spending serious funds you need a lot lower than a 50% failure rate.
Folks, what typically costs the big money is the facility, i.e., the tool, not the experiment. If half the experiments on LHC fail, the LHC is a success, because the other half will have succeeded. Tools aren't consumed (usually).

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

alexjrgreen wrote:The Bushmen have tools and leisure.

If they need rope, they just braid it from grass.
Making rope from grass is, again, terribly labor-intensive as compared to buying it at Wal-Mart, which requires about 5 minutes' worth of wages versus many hours labor for equivalent utiity. That's before we even start talking about complex tools requiring metallurgy, chemistry, etc.

Do you know the average life expectancy of Bushmen? I'm guessing it's close to 40. Leisure has a price.

Anyways, it doesn't look like many of them are really hunter/gatherers any more. Some of it may be a show for tourists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushmen

This is sort of funny:
The 1980 comedy movie The Gods Must Be Crazy portrays a Kalahari Bushman tribe's first encounter with an artifact from the outside world (a Coke bottle). By the time this movie was made, the ǃKung had recently been forced into sedentary villages, and the Bushmen hired as actors were confused by the instructions to act out inaccurate exaggerations of their abandoned hunting and gathering life.

alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

TallDave wrote:
alexjrgreen wrote:The Bushmen have tools and leisure.

If they need rope, they just braid it from grass.
Making rope from grass is, again, terribly labor-intensive as compared to buying it at Wal-Mart, which requires about 5 minutes' worth of wages versus many hours labor for equivalent utiity. That's before we even start talking about complex tools requiring metallurgy, chemistry, etc.

Do you know the average life expectancy of Bushmen? I'm guessing it's close to 40. Leisure has a price.

Anyways, it doesn't look like many of them are really hunter/gatherers any more. Some of it may be a show for tourists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushmen

This is sort of funny:
The 1980 comedy movie The Gods Must Be Crazy portrays a Kalahari Bushman tribe's first encounter with an artifact from the outside world (a Coke bottle). By the time this movie was made, the ǃKung had recently been forced into sedentary villages, and the Bushmen hired as actors were confused by the instructions to act out inaccurate exaggerations of their abandoned hunting and gathering life.
You've underestimated both the time it takes for you to drive to WalMart and how quickly a Bushman can braid grass...

The Bushmen's knowledge of the properties of the plants and animals around them is used both in medicine and to poison the tips of their arrows.

The family I was living with on the dunes were aged from 9 to well over 60.
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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

I'd like to see them braid some 400,000 psi rope.
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alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

MSimon wrote:I'd like to see them braid some 400,000 psi rope.
Not sure what they'd want nylon rope for, but it's fairly low-tech chemistry.

Industrialised man does a lot of things the Bushmen don't - many of them both unnecessary and unsustainable. A truly civilised society would maintain an ecological balance and still be able to visit the planets.
Ars artis est celare artem.

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