EEStor news

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

Moderators: tonybarry, MSimon

MirariNefas
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Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:57 am

Post by MirariNefas »

MSimon wrote: But I do agree hybrids are the way to go for at least 10 to 20 years. Shake down the electrics and introduce them gradually.
Despite my previous statements I agree with this. Gradual is good, and topdown forced sudden massive changes are impractical.

I just think that the market could do it on its own, actually. Something providing cheaper energy, like a polywell, would quickly make electric a more attractive option. It's already cheaper per mile if you neglect the battery costs, and I do wonder how much we'll erode that cost in the coming decade. I think the minor impracticalities of electric cars will evaporate or be accepted if costs decrease.

KitemanSA
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Post by KitemanSA »

There are a few policies that cities could adopt that would push the development without mandating it.

Since noise and dirt and smog are all part of the problem with ICE powered cars, cities might tackle these issues AND energy efficiency by banning the operation of ICEs within the "core" district during "rush hours". And the district and hours would start fairly small and grow by some pre-published plan. This would tend to promote the development of plug-in hybrids, and push for improved electric-only performance thru the years.

randomly
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Post by randomly »

MSimon wrote: A production car is not going to spend the money required to get the weight reductions and motor performance Tesla did. And that number might represent out of the door designed number. i.e. not counting 30% reserve for battery life, reserve for battery aging, reserve for production tolerances etc.

Tesla may not need all those reserves or can shave them by being basically hand built.

But I do agree hybrids are the way to go for at least 10 to 20 years. Shake down the electrics and introduce them gradually.

My guess is that we will still be using liquid fuels in very large volumes 100 years from now.
The GM Volt at 1600kg curb wt is getting around 40 miles out of 8 Kwh, or 5 miles /kwh. Granted it's not in production yet, but the numbers will be reasonably close that.
The Tesla is a targeted as a high performance sports car, some efficiency trade offs were certainly made to achieve that high performance.

In any case the batteries are such a dominant cost of the vehicle that optimizing system efficiency has a high return on cost. Increasing system efficiency reduces battery cost (by reducing battery size) so much you can spend a considerable amount of money and effort in that direction. In other words it's very cost effective to spend money on being very efficient. This should be true of any vehicle designs in this class.

btw the Volt battery is 16Kwh, but it's derated to only 8kwh. The recharge cycle life is extended by never fully charging the battery nor fully discharging it. Full charge is something like 80% capacity, discharged is at 30%.

I agree, the advantages of liquid fuel are just enormous. We take it for granted but gasoline is really magic stuff with it's huge energy capacity, ease of handling, storage, and transportation. With serial hybrids like the Volt you can also optimize the generator engine because you can run it at constant load/constant rpm and thermodynamic efficiency can be in the 35%-40% range.

I agree completely, liquid fuels are going to be around for a very long time.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

And if that's a low enough percentage of the market... who cares?


The guy driving to his father's funeral.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MirariNefas
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Post by MirariNefas »

So he gets to keep an extra battery in his trunk or stop somewhere that carries them. Or he gets to hire a deisel fuel taxi.

So what?

People always have impractical needs. Should I cry about the person who's father's funeral is on an island without a landing strip? Or the guy who needs to attend a funeral in the middle of a wilderness where it wasn't economical to build a road? That's his problem, life is tragedy, deal with it.


Systems optimize different things. No system is perfect in all ways. When a system is in common use, we get used to it, and don't complain, say, that our cars are clearly deficient because they can't fly. You work within the parameters of economy and plan within those parameters.

parallel
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Post by parallel »

I gather mainly from http://theeestory.com that there is increasing evidence that the EESU is real. I think if it were not, we would have seen quite different body language from Lockheed Martin at their recent press conference. LM managers were not allowed to comment directly.

As most know, year end is supposed to be the deadline for delivery of the first EESU to Zenn. Their stock price has hovered around $4 for some time, showing a remarkable balance between fear & greed as the deadline approaches.

The problem seems to be in manufacturing, that translates into a cost problem. It seems that manufacture has turned out to be more difficult than anticipated and although most of the problems have been resolved a few still remain. I'm not surprised at this and said I expected that in an earlier post. It didn't sound to be easy.

How this will be resolved in not clear. Presumably there would be a military market right now at whatever cost, but a further significant delay might be lethal to Zenn. I hope that at least a few samples of the EESU will be allowed to appear, in order to boost longer term confidence.

mvanwink5
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Post by mvanwink5 »

I saw zenn's price recover from 3.5 and went to investigate at theeestory site and found the total substance boiled down to a smile. Such is the totality of the evidence that Eestor is not a scam. There is really no reason to put hopes on rumors of unicorns based on a smile and an unanswered question.
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

parallel
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Post by parallel »

mvanwink5,

LM is not the only evidence, but none of it is truly solid. I just feel it adds up to something, but could well be wrong.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

parallel wrote:mvanwink5,

LM is not the only evidence, but none of it is truly solid. I just feel it adds up to something, but could well be wrong.
The Brits fooled the Germans from 1940 to '45 with tricks like this. Nothing conclusive......

Of course I'm a Polywell fanboy so I should talk?
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Giorgio
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Post by Giorgio »

parallel wrote:The problem seems to be in manufacturing, that translates into a cost problem. It seems that manufacture has turned out to be more difficult than anticipated and although most of the problems have been resolved a few still remain.
Manufacturing is just an engineering issues.
To make everyone believe them they just need to show a working prototype and not a fully functional factory.

parallel
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Post by parallel »

Manufacturing is just an engineering issues.
If you have a 90% reject rate, "just an engineering issue" doesn't quite hack it.

I see someone took a 1/4 million dollar bet on it this afternoon, so I'm not lonely.

Giorgio
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Post by Giorgio »

parallel wrote:
Manufacturing is just an engineering issues.
If you have a 90% reject rate, "just an engineering issue" doesn't quite hack it.

I see someone took a 1/4 million dollar bet on it this afternoon, so I'm not lonely.
If you have a 90% rejection rate than you have a 10% working prototypes and a 90% engineering issue.

Show the working prototype, and money will pour on you from every place to solve the 90% engineering issue.

You can twist it the way you want, but this is the way the real world works.

mvanwink5
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Post by mvanwink5 »

Parallel, I closely followed Eestor, reading everything in print, patents, articles, blogs, research papers, etc. There has been no theory with real numbers that support the energy density within an order of magnitude of claims, and there are no real measurements of components that support claims of energy density (there are numbers in a patent, but they are inconsistent so I give them no credence). All so called evidence that I have found falls in the smile category. If there was truly any real theory or real evidence of ESU's, Zenn stock price would be soaring. It is why a recent smile has such an impact on stock price.

As a comparison, Polywell devices are real, have been tested, and plausible theories of how they work exist. I can't say any of those things about Eestor ESU's. From what I can determine with lots of effort, the ESU's fall in the category of pure hope. Perhaps I have missed something.

Cheers

PS I don't begrudge those who carry on hoping and dreaming of good things to come. Hope is a wonderful thing. :)
Near term, cheap, dark horse fusion hits the air waves, GF - TED, LM - Announcement. The race is on.

clonan
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Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:16 pm

Post by clonan »

Giorgio wrote:
Show the working prototype, and money will pour on you from every place to solve the 90% engineering issue.

You can twist it the way you want, but this is the way the real world works.

Assuming they WANT money coming in from everywhere.

If they think they already have essentially all the resources they need AND if they think no one can beat them to it, there is no reason at all to dilute thier personal investment by accepting un-needed money from elsewhere.

They will end up creating a mini museum in thier headquarters with all the prototypes AFTER they start selling them wholesale.

energyfan
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Post by energyfan »

clonan wrote:
Giorgio wrote:
Show the working prototype, and money will pour on you from every place to solve the 90% engineering issue.

You can twist it the way you want, but this is the way the real world works.

Assuming they WANT money coming in from everywhere.

If they think they already have essentially all the resources they need AND if they think no one can beat them to it, there is no reason at all to dilute thier personal investment by accepting un-needed money from elsewhere.

They will end up creating a mini museum in thier headquarters with all the prototypes AFTER they start selling them wholesale.

they don't have it, they should have been all over the news by now and doing advertising if they made what they said

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