Well I was assuming he would be doing a real checkable demo. Not a bunch of styrofoam boxes covered in tinfoil and powered to the tune of 470 Kw by a 450 Kw generator. That is 5% "over unity" my friend. A HUGE breakthrough. Probably enough "excess energy" to keep the generator in lubricating oils. Diesel fuel will be extra.bhl wrote:Pretty smug! Lets see how your previous predictions are going...MSimon wrote:I think phlogiston was the most important scientific discovery ever. Right up there with Piltdown Man.
Digging back to May 15th:Hmm. Dead wrong.MSimon wrote:Prediction - come October/November there will "minor difficulties" (supply? construction? something else?) that will delay construction for 6 months.
10KW LENR demonstrator (new thread)
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
You people suppose Rossi is the man who drives this show, the man to make decisions, the Strategic behind the game and then you are puzzled by how strangely and inconsistently he manages the whole thing.
Well, assume he is not. Assume he does, what he is being told to or what is there left for him to do (by the head of the game). Think humbly, not supposing you perceive the whole picture. What you see is just a part of it, moreover, you SEE WHAT IS BEING SHOWN to you. To make it easier, try to think that E-Cat is NOT the issue here.
What do we see?
A man of doubtful credentials (prior convictions for taking part in two different fraud schemes) trying to make an enterprise in the energy production field of business (one fraud scheme form his past was in the same field).
The man takes a 15 years old patented device (patent of which was not renewed by his holder) and claims it to produce significant amount of energy after certain modifications made by him over long period of time. The man lacks any scientific, related to the field of interest credentials or even engineering ones. The man claims his product to be a result of trial and error (new kind of nuclear reactor, sic!)
Over half a year time the man sets up a series of demos with faulty setups (in accordance with the lack of credentials), which fail to produce any scientifically non-ambiguous data, but do produce quite some publicity and even hype in some communities.
There are many peculiarities about the way all this is managed by the man (business-wise as well as engineering-wise), as well as about his attitude.
The man announces several possible clients/partners for his product over the time but none of them close a deal with him. Now there is an undisclosed customer who was allegedly satisfied by the last test and is about to BUY.
The last demo/test was bigger in size, complexity and alleged energy input/output. It's transparency has reduced proportionally. As all other tests it produced no scientific data (that is released, that is). It failed to meet the stated goal, but the customer was satisfied and there was champagne wine.
OK?
Now suppose Rossi is not the one who's head of the game. Suppose he is a pawn. Suppose you see what is shown to you.
What is shown to you?
A compromised entrepreneur further compromising a compromised field of technology (CF)?
A lucky hardworking eccentric on the verge of taking a jack-pot with new technology in a not-so-lacking-hype energy production industry?
A home-grown genius battling the ignorance of the academia?
Who might be the audience for this show?
What might be the purpose of the show?
Who might be the producer?
Suppose it's not Rossi's game. Just for fun.
(You won't be the first - the guy on PESN already mentioned the Italian Mafia
)
A non-rhetoric question:
Does anyone has a rough estimation, on the OOM accuracy, of how much would this show "cost"? All of it, including all - all the hardware, the press (Krivit \ Lewan \ PESN etc.), the coffee machine, the champagne...
I am not suggesting some one feeds $$ directly to this-or-that person, but it would be quite naive to suppose all the coverage is genuine and all that happens is just a series of co-incidents, wouldn't it?
Well, assume he is not. Assume he does, what he is being told to or what is there left for him to do (by the head of the game). Think humbly, not supposing you perceive the whole picture. What you see is just a part of it, moreover, you SEE WHAT IS BEING SHOWN to you. To make it easier, try to think that E-Cat is NOT the issue here.
What do we see?
A man of doubtful credentials (prior convictions for taking part in two different fraud schemes) trying to make an enterprise in the energy production field of business (one fraud scheme form his past was in the same field).
The man takes a 15 years old patented device (patent of which was not renewed by his holder) and claims it to produce significant amount of energy after certain modifications made by him over long period of time. The man lacks any scientific, related to the field of interest credentials or even engineering ones. The man claims his product to be a result of trial and error (new kind of nuclear reactor, sic!)
Over half a year time the man sets up a series of demos with faulty setups (in accordance with the lack of credentials), which fail to produce any scientifically non-ambiguous data, but do produce quite some publicity and even hype in some communities.
There are many peculiarities about the way all this is managed by the man (business-wise as well as engineering-wise), as well as about his attitude.
The man announces several possible clients/partners for his product over the time but none of them close a deal with him. Now there is an undisclosed customer who was allegedly satisfied by the last test and is about to BUY.
The last demo/test was bigger in size, complexity and alleged energy input/output. It's transparency has reduced proportionally. As all other tests it produced no scientific data (that is released, that is). It failed to meet the stated goal, but the customer was satisfied and there was champagne wine.
OK?
Now suppose Rossi is not the one who's head of the game. Suppose he is a pawn. Suppose you see what is shown to you.
What is shown to you?
A compromised entrepreneur further compromising a compromised field of technology (CF)?
A lucky hardworking eccentric on the verge of taking a jack-pot with new technology in a not-so-lacking-hype energy production industry?
A home-grown genius battling the ignorance of the academia?
Who might be the audience for this show?
What might be the purpose of the show?
Who might be the producer?
Suppose it's not Rossi's game. Just for fun.
(You won't be the first - the guy on PESN already mentioned the Italian Mafia
) A non-rhetoric question:
Does anyone has a rough estimation, on the OOM accuracy, of how much would this show "cost"? All of it, including all - all the hardware, the press (Krivit \ Lewan \ PESN etc.), the coffee machine, the champagne...
I am not suggesting some one feeds $$ directly to this-or-that person, but it would be quite naive to suppose all the coverage is genuine and all that happens is just a series of co-incidents, wouldn't it?
Quantum tunnelling diffusion of hydrogen nickel substrates ...
http://prl.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v79/i19/p3696_1
http://prb.aps.org/abstract/PRB/v51/i7/p4418_1
Now if we had highly mobile nickel adatoms hopping about across the vast surface areas of nano-particle powders, at the vibrational energy determined by temperature, and they happened to collide with hydogen atoms hopping about the on same surfaces .... how much energy would they collide with, when hopping into the same adsorption site simultaneously, and what would be the frequency of such collisions ....?
Still speculating here of course.
http://prl.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v79/i19/p3696_1
http://prb.aps.org/abstract/PRB/v51/i7/p4418_1
Now if we had highly mobile nickel adatoms hopping about across the vast surface areas of nano-particle powders, at the vibrational energy determined by temperature, and they happened to collide with hydogen atoms hopping about the on same surfaces .... how much energy would they collide with, when hopping into the same adsorption site simultaneously, and what would be the frequency of such collisions ....?
Still speculating here of course.
Oh my, where did I make conclusions?! I proposed an assumption and asked questions, not hiding the fact my whole POV is a speculation. Not that I mind you reassuring on thisSkipjack wrote:Inconsistencies are just that. They are not evidence. I could just as well interpret them as him being real.All the inconsistencies?
I think we need more evidence to make conclusions. Everything so far on this and the other thread is more or less unfounded speculation.
. But it is a founded speculation, IMO.Inconsistencies can be viewed as clues, if you would. Ask any detective.
Could. At least, if we get any science out of it.bhl wrote:This could easily be the most important scientific breakthrough ever.
Will?It will be discussed ad infinitum.
To what? Go around the web spreading the good news? Buy shares in Rossi's venture? Start saving up for your own E-Cat? At this point having a discussion, as we are doing, is about all we can reasonably do. Some people are trying to replicate the E-Cat. I wish them well, but they're handicapped from the outset by a certain lack of knowledge regarding the thing they're supposed to be replicating. Anyway, the only reason to replicate the E-Cat is because you accept the magnitude of Rossi's claims. Otherwise, you might as well try replicating Piantelli, Miley, Arata, or any number of researchers who are much more open about their research.Why wait for the mainstream media to bless it, or the UofB, or a blessed science journal, or until you personally are scalded by the anomalous heat?
Regarding "blessing" the E-Cat, for me it's not about authority, it's about redundancy. As far as I'm concerned, the ideal outcome would be for Rossi to dump his lab notes (if he keeps them) on the Internet for everyone to read and make up their own minds, but that's not going to happen.
I would say that, apart from the amateur replication efforts, it has already been heavily investigated to the extent permitted by Rossi.We should be doing everything possible to investigate it.
Thank you. That is much more convenient than trying to read JONP directly.This is where you can read Rossi in near-real time:
http://www.rossilivecat.com/ (With handy translate button for the Italian Q/A.)
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.
Actually, I had a hypothesis once that Christos Stremmenos was the one running the show, but when Rossi and Defkalion split, and Stremmenos sided with Rossi, that kind of threw a wrench in my hypothesis.polyill wrote:You people suppose Rossi is the man who drives this show, the man to make decisions, the Strategic behind the game and then you are puzzled by how strangely and inconsistently he manages the whole thing.
On the other hand, you could argue that Defkalion helped build up a demand for the E-Cat, and once they were out of the way....
Still, I prefer my hypotheses to contain as little convolution and as few conspirators as possible. My favored hypothesis recently has been that Rossi has, or thinks he has, something, but Piantelli's 2010 patent application has made him both paranoid and hasty. I think many of Rossi's quirks can be explained by his drive to beat Piantelli to the market, even if he has to bluff, exaggerate, and cut corners to do it.
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.
All true. But a snake-oil salesman saying he has a miracle cure (which is a decent analogy) is also not evidence.Skipjack wrote:Inconsistencies are just that. They are not evidence. I could just as well interpret them as him being real.All the inconsistencies?
I think we need more evidence to make conclusions. Everything so far on this and the other thread is more or less unfounded speculation.
No doubt every such claim will get heated internet discusion. But I think the judgements on this thread are often weird.
Sorry, but this is a little hard to imagine.icarus wrote: Imagine the customer doesn't really care about the science and only if the thing can do what Rossi says it can do for a moment ... who would want such a product?
Someone with a remote camp that needs heating is a distinct possibility ... I'm thinking somewhere cold, like Antartica or Artic circle where you cannot get fuel in easily or at all, like over-wintering or a war zone in the Afghan mountains. This also gels with why he wants self-sustain demo .... no fuel for aux. power needed.
The only reason customer can buy that thing displayed in the video is for evaluation and research (and most likely reverse engineering).
I cannot imagine shipping that thing to some distinct camp to do heating. It would be too expensive and pointless.
So really, I cannot imagine anybody shelling out $2M to get 1MW heater based on unknown physics to do actual heating.
We are quickly getting to the point where we cannot prove that there is no invisible dragon in your garage....icarus wrote:So you don't really know or you do? It is not made clear by just throwing it back at me.ladajo wrote:Not my job. If you want to know, go read the pubs, take the courses, and get yourself certified as a contracting officer.
Or you can continue to live in the world you are where "blacks ops" can do as they wish. As I said, fine by me. Doesn't affect my life at all.
Ha, that makes for a nice conspiration theory too!polyill wrote:You people suppose Rossi is the man who drives this show, the man to make decisions, the Strategic behind the game and then you are puzzled by how strangely and inconsistently he manages the whole thing.
Rossi is actually pawn of big oil (and greenpeace) hired to discredit CF field!
KitemanSA wrote:Actually, I think the Ni 58 is reduced by maybe a factor 2 or 3. Why? Just the impression I get. But he is not seperating out the 62/64, he is reducing the 58.
For your convenience: There exists no method for "separation" and no "elimination" of isotopes, only different grades of de/enrichment.
KitemanSA wrote:So what? Radiation putting out 100 times background? So what? Well, you may not think that important, but I suspect he does.bk78 wrote: Actually, this was what I was talking about.You COMPLETELY ignored my point. If deenrichment of Ni-58 to a few percent is enough to make it undetectable, why should he bother the first place. If he did not, the radiation would be 100 times that much... so what?
As I already explained, increasing the radiation by a factor of 100 does not mean 100 times background level:
So once again, while you might think of yourself to be "open minded" you are beeing ignorant here. Funny thing is, now you actually dare to give a number: Reduction of Ni-58 by a factor 2-3. Going through the effort of enrichment for reducing radiation by a factor 2-3 is completely pointless. Just add 20 cm of water, 2 cm steel or whatever.bk78 wrote:
Regarding the 4 orders of magnitude:
The detector was maybe 20..30cm away. For a person at 1m distance, dose rate is reduced by a factor of about 10. By summing up scintillator counts over a minute, you can easily detect changes at a few percent of natural background. Millions of people live all their life in areas with high natural background, and receive doses about an order of magnitude higher than someone in Bolgna, without known negative effects on health. Thats 4 orders of magnitude. Considering the limited time someone spends near the reactor, much higher levels could be regarded as harmless.
You were babbling something about internal conversion. For your convenience, I assumed, ALL of the radiation was internally converted. For some reason, you seem to assume this is a process that eliminates all radiation. Please explain. Even an imperfection of 1 in a billion for your magic process, and we would detect radiation.KitemanSA wrote:Lets not and pretend we did.bk78 wrote: Considering radiation issues in general:
Let's say, the reactor produces his power in form of 6MeV (was it?) beta radiation. .
Do you actually understand we have TWO miracles here:
1. cold fusion occurs
2. It emits no radiation
Which would be easily explained by assuming that they did not happen and all we saw was an electric water boiler.