Search found 1684 matches

by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:28 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

Simon, I suspect this. Any error that implies cooling gets lots of publicity from anti-AGW groups. It becomes high profile. Then it is corrected, you hear about this. Other errors just get corrected quietly, and no-one highlights it. In any case the true argument is not warming vs cooling (though so...
by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 10:03 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Manipulation
Replies: 99
Views: 32999

RavingDave, Quite a bit more can be said. On the support for your idea - you will find scientists who say weird things, even within their own field. Not may of them, but always there are the outliers. There are more outliers when they are scientists whose main expertise is a different area (e.g. Duf...
by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 9:27 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

Josh, I take your point about people who are open to evidence and those with a priori and unchangeable beliefs. Still I myself am uncomfortable with the word "denier". It implies there is a creed and sides. Much better to be open-minded and argue the evidence assuming all antagonists are e...
by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:55 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

Re overfitting Pielke has long attempted to argue against AGW (which does not of course invalidate his arguments). the issue of overfitting and tunable parameters is complex, and we need to know exactly which parameters are tunable and how they are tuned. My understanding is that although individual...
by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 1:38 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

Willis et al published anomalous ocean cooling results in 2006 but noticed errors in their data and corrected the original paper (published August 2007): Received 9 April 2007; accepted 17 July 2007; published 18 August 2007. Citation: Willis, J. K., J. M. Lyman, G. C. Johnson, and J. Gilson (2007),...
by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 7:17 am
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

I think many people on this thread are missing the point. GC models are based on physics and tested (not fitted) over 100,000s of years of historical data. So the fact that the recent 50 years of data may be difficult to disambiguate from noise effects (aerosols, which can be modelled well, PDO whic...
by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 10:06 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

djolds1 - I get the impression you think I am engaged on one side of this debate with a whole load of assumptions. I was replying where I had something relevant to say. I am not ignoring anything. I don't see it as necessary (or truthful) to rebut points made when I don't know about them. That does ...
by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 8:00 pm
Forum: News
Topic: Press Release: BlackLight Power signs first commercial deal.
Replies: 17
Views: 5971

I spent a while recently (for fun) studying the continuing cold fusion results and the recent peer review, together with commentaries. Overall conclusion - there are some interesting effects but no evidence of nuclear reactions. It is amazing to me how tenaciously CF advocates hold to the fact of CF...
by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:52 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Human Nature not a constant ?
Replies: 84
Views: 14751

Neither seemed to guarantee xenophobia or xenophilia. It was more education and culture that decided this. Even education & culture do not guarantee this. Take 1930s Germany where the National Socialists, and their policy of anti-Semitism, were very largely popular. OK, what I would call good e...
by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 4:13 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Polywell = Navy Advantage
Replies: 58
Views: 11100

by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:54 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

Simon, I have just realised a problem with your "more detailed" graph. How are you curve fitting? It looks to me as though the last 2 years (which undoubtedly show a cooling trend) are over-fitted when compared with intermediate years. If you try any unbiassed curve fitting on this data wh...
by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:21 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

I find this debate fascinating. Josh - Simon is not (in the recent post at least) saying that. He is claiming: (1) (implicitly) solar heat input has a dominant effect on global temperature trends (2) IPCC views this as irrelevant. To be fair, given we have been Ok for a few thousand years it is reas...
by tomclarke
Sun Dec 14, 2008 1:00 pm
Forum: News
Topic: Press Release: BlackLight Power signs first commercial deal.
Replies: 17
Views: 5971

If the Blacklight theory was more coherent it would receive academic attention - but it is not. Given the background of its inventor that is not surprising. It is always possible that some completely new aspect of Physics is manifested just in the effects this company has been studying. Whether they...
by tomclarke
Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:53 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52664

I have not paid enough attention to the AGW debate. I thought the science was pretty clear. In fact, I still think the science is pretty clear but I would be happier if I worked through all the arguments and counter-arguments myself. The trouble is that climate prediction is really complex - I agree...
by tomclarke
Thu Dec 11, 2008 4:35 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Manipulation
Replies: 99
Views: 32999

Simon, I think we are now restating positions. Mine is that while I would take a vote to decide what government we should have, i will not take a vote 9or a petition0 to decide what is or is not true scientifically. for that i trust my own research into scientific opinion that I vaguely trust (= pee...

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