Search found 1684 matches

by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 5:15 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

Duane, I know a few scientists. Sure there are many who do groupthink But the good ones never do so. Maybe climate modelling is such a weird field that it only gets mediocre scientists invloved? Maybe scientific careers are so structured that good scientsists in this area never get promoted so are i...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 4:59 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

On doom-sayers One of the ironies, which I am reminded of by my reply to Duane above, is the following. Suppose we have exponential population growth and increase in resource use. We know that at some time this must change, either dramatically, with a malthusian crash, or gradually, as the exponenti...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 4:44 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

Only the most fundamental physical theories deserve near absolute certainty. Newtonianism, GR, QM. The derivative sciences have a nice track record of serious and consistent error. Consider genetics c.1990. Everyone "knew" that humans had 100,000 genes and near everything about human biology was de...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 4:25 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

Simon, Glad to debate this with you - and I also know something about electronics models & their reliability. There are two causes of model innacuracy. By analogy with electronics: 1) The known components may have values not as specified (component tolerances range from 0.1% to -50+100%). 2) The mod...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:50 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Manipulation
Replies: 99
Views: 40500

Seedload & Simon, Re green conspiracy omnipresent. I am not sure it can be a conspiracy if it is omnipresent: more a mass delusion from which only a few enlightended individuals opt out? Re no problem. The debate about AGW is that some people believe, and propose evidence to support, the possibility...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:19 pm
Forum: News
Topic: Focus Fusion boys got some money to play with?
Replies: 7
Views: 5134

If you look at the latest papers from Chile (sorry I don't have the refs to hand, but was not difficult to find them) they say that the plasma current does not scale with input energy as expected. This is a problem. Since then there has been ominous silence. It was always a method that had lots of p...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:23 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

The better example are the economic models funded by the various finance banks. Both climate and the economy are massively complex chaotic systems. The finance modelers are among the best that mathematics has to offer. They have billions of dollars of motivation to tweak their predictive models rig...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:06 am
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

The pro-AGW crowd has hyped its assurance of unquestionable accuracy ("the science is done") to the Heavens. They should expect swift kicks to the groin whenever the slightest tarnish shows on the halo. If you're going to claim impeccability, you'd darn well better be impeccable. I have sympathy wi...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:51 am
Forum: News
Topic: Someone has the date of release of Information - Lets POOL !
Replies: 49
Views: 18151

Great news that report is received with positive reaction and peer-review is OK. Though latter does not surprise me given Nebel's obviously careful approach. On a risk-weighted basis the chances of "success" would have to be 0.1% or less for this project (funded for next stage) not to look attractiv...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:20 am
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

At which point common sense kicks in. If standard weather prediction can barely manage a week out, if economic models which have better data and algorithms then the climate models can barely manage a quarter ahead, why should any credence be given to century forecast models, much less the tremendou...
by tomclarke
Tue Dec 16, 2008 11:40 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

Sorry, Oe more thing. To make my point about global vs local temps. Any one temperature proxy will be local and exhibit much greater variation, with no likelihood that last 150 years will stand out. So: Looking at the last 4 centuries of Himalayan tree ring data, they note that "The warmest 30-yr me...
by tomclarke
Tue Dec 16, 2008 11:32 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

The temperature reconstruction of the past millenium is very complex and painstaking process. I would hate to be doing it! It uses different methods (not just tree rings) and validates methods against each other. The fact that some tree ring data is anomalous in 20th century is hardly surprising - m...
by tomclarke
Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:15 am
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1810336 Solar irradiance changes are being considered seriously by the models. If they are innacurate that will correct itself. It is also possible solar physicists making more extreme statements about likelihood of significant future cooling...
by tomclarke
Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:08 am
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

Well if solar-induced cooling is large and long-lasting it will be great news for the world - give us enough time to find easier solutions.

I have not looked into the solar cycle data so I do not know how reliable such predictions are or precisely how big...

Tom
by tomclarke
Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:37 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 62875

Simon, Re the ocean temp paper. I remain cautious about drawing conclusions from this since there are clearly issues in interpreting the data that lead to the previous correction. Without the full paper I can't be sure how these are now treated, or what are the uncertainties. However this is surely ...