Search found 1684 matches

by tomclarke
Sat Dec 20, 2008 7:31 pm
Forum: News
Topic: "The verdict is positive"
Replies: 99
Views: 31325

I think this board has posters with different ideas about Polywell. I suppose all hope it will work. A few post as though they are convinced it will work and assume that the more extreme versions of it (P-B11) will work. When it may be that it will be viable for D-T fusion but not P-B11. Some are fa...
by tomclarke
Sat Dec 20, 2008 7:15 pm
Forum: General
Topic: PDO explains twentieth century warming?
Replies: 60
Views: 9516

Seed, I have to say I don't understand PDO yet. I have posted on another thread link to analysis of Spencer's data (maybe current, or maybe earlier than what he now says) which states his PDO index is a linear combination of two other indices. Re uncertainty etc. It is only Spencer who things PDO ha...
by tomclarke
Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:45 pm
Forum: News
Topic: "The verdict is positive"
Replies: 99
Views: 31325

Simon, If people were super-clever, super-knowledgable & rational a "no rules except disclosure" strategy would work well. People are none of these things, nor can be. So in real world rules are about what gives best compromise between freedom & protection. You don't even have to v...
by tomclarke
Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:07 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52666

Why is Roy Spencer's model non-Physical? (see discussion on thread referenced above by seed). Here is a great but highly polemic post rom realclimate on the details of how Roy got his PDO data that matches so precisely. He selected to indices, and linearly combined them, and then added a big damping...
by tomclarke
Fri Dec 19, 2008 8:18 pm
Forum: General
Topic: PDO explains twentieth century warming?
Replies: 60
Views: 9516

Simon - If the models now incorporate the PDO I guess so. The detailed models are available surely? I will have to do some more wading through realclimate summary posts + 100s of comments looking at issue from all sides. The trouble is that Climate Audit takes a few isolated issues and looks at them...
by tomclarke
Fri Dec 19, 2008 5:37 pm
Forum: General
Topic: PDO explains twentieth century warming?
Replies: 60
Views: 9516

OK, if linear that is much better. But it is still not the same as the way GC models have parameters tweaked. The crucial issue if whether you can find control data to determine the tweaks that is unrealted to the final result (temperature). In other words because the model is Physical you can fit p...
by tomclarke
Fri Dec 19, 2008 4:38 pm
Forum: General
Topic: PDO explains twentieth century warming?
Replies: 60
Views: 9516

Re: PDO explains twentieth century warming?

Seed, As requested, a critique. You are taking a graph of data. Choosing 4 tunable parameters, and adjusting these to get best fit with another graph of data. Possibly your choice of a step-wise non-linear model (cool/ignore/heat] should also be considered chosen to fit. The point is, it is easy to ...
by tomclarke
Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:49 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52666

I too hope for a soft landing with all the world becoming like the developed countries. But this is not historically very common - we live in unprecedented times! Tom PS - biotech is another problem I have with the greens. they should be embracing it, but do not. It is not helped by the fact that th...
by tomclarke
Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:44 pm
Forum: General
Topic: How did we convert from horse and buggy to automobiles
Replies: 91
Views: 13658

Simon, i am not sure how it balances, the systems are so different. Japan is a very rule-following country. China does not yet have rule of law. A disadvantage for a capitalist system because the playing rules are not fixed and depend on which officials you can bribe. But there is still massive ende...
by tomclarke
Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:38 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Manipulation
Replies: 99
Views: 33002

Yes, I agree with Simon on greens anti-tech bias. They have a whole load of prejudices, and it makes their responses incoherent. Specifically, the anti-nuclear stance makes CO2 reductions effectively impossible - and they should be caring about GW. Unfortunately the anti-nuclear lobby (in UK at leas...
by tomclarke
Thu Dec 18, 2008 5:23 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52666

Let us play chance. You say there s a 5% chance my scientific experiment will set off a quantum inversion which destroys the whole world. I say: its OK 95% probability nothing will happen. I guess you want to stop me. Actually, no. Progress requires some risk. ~5% risk? I'll throw the on switch for...
by tomclarke
Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:51 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Manipulation
Replies: 99
Views: 33002

by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 10:15 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52666

I will say with confidence that the apocalypticians are wrong >= 95% of the time. Within the bounds of scientific certainty. tomclarke wrote: The same arguments apply to humanities ability to continue population growth and resource use. Club of Rome resource hysteria was put paid in the '80s. Popul...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:55 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52666

I have some sympathy with the view that people should not be coerced. After all, there is disagreement about global warming, who is to be the arbiter. some, but not much. Consider. You live peacefuly on your own land, with a stream. You catch (and eat) fish from the stream. You get your water from t...
by tomclarke
Wed Dec 17, 2008 6:38 pm
Forum: General
Topic: Global Warming Concensus Broken
Replies: 424
Views: 52666

Simon, Here is a lot of discussion of how big an effect solar forcing has on climate. The consensus seems to be that the MM was coincidentally at the same time as other forcing effects. The detail is worth reading (all the posts) to get some idea of whether this stuff is part of a global green consp...

Go to advanced search